Quick Definition
A parlay (also called an accumulator or multi-bet) is a single bet that combines two or more individual wagers. All selections must win for the parlay to pay out. If even one leg loses, the entire parlay loses.
Parlays offer higher payouts than single bets because they're harder to win, but they come with significantly lower probability of success. While they're incredibly popular among recreational bettors due to their lottery-like appeal, parlays carry a substantially higher house edge than straight bets, making them one of the most profitable bet types for sportsbooks.
How Parlays Work: Detailed Examples Across Sports
The Math Behind Parlay Odds
Parlay odds are calculated by multiplying the decimal odds of each leg together. Here's the formula:
Parlay Decimal Odds = Leg 1 Odds × Leg 2 Odds × Leg 3 Odds...
For example, three -110 bets (1.91 decimal each):
- 1.91 × 1.91 × 1.91 = 6.97
- Convert back to American: +597
- A $100 bet wins $597 profit
NFL Parlay Example: Sunday Slate
Let's build a 3-team parlay for Week 7 NFL:
| Leg | Selection | Odds | Decimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs -3.5 vs Broncos | -110 | 1.91 |
| 2 | Bills -7 vs Patriots | -110 | 1.91 |
| 3 | Eagles -4 vs Giants | -110 | 1.91 |
Bet Amount: $100
Parlay Odds: +597
Potential Payout: $697 ($597 profit + $100 stake)
Possible Outcomes
- All 3 win: Chiefs cover by 7, Bills win by 10, Eagles win by 6 - You collect $697
- 2 out of 3 win: Chiefs and Bills cover, but Eagles only win by 3 - You lose your entire $100
- 1 out of 3 wins: Only Chiefs cover - You lose your entire $100
- All 3 lose: You lose your entire $100
Key Point: Going 2-for-3 (66% correct) still means a total loss. This is why parlays are brutal.
NBA Parlay Example: Primetime Games
A 4-team NBA parlay combining spreads and totals:
| Leg | Selection | Odds | Decimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers -5.5 vs Trail Blazers | -110 | 1.91 |
| 2 | Celtics ML vs Pistons | -280 | 1.36 |
| 3 | Nuggets vs Suns OVER 225.5 | -105 | 1.95 |
| 4 | Warriors +3 vs Mavericks | -110 | 1.91 |
Calculation: 1.91 × 1.36 × 1.95 × 1.91 = 9.73 (approximately +873 American odds)
$50 Bet Returns: $486.50 total ($436.50 profit)
What Actually Happened:
- Lakers win by 8 ✓
- Celtics win by 22 ✓
- Nuggets-Suns final score: 224 total ✗ (missed by 1.5 points)
- Warriors don't matter - parlay already lost
Result: $50 lost. You were one half-point away on a total, went 2-for-3 on the legs that mattered, and lost everything.
MLB Parlay Example: Day Games
Baseball parlays often use moneylines due to the absence of point spreads:
| Leg | Selection | Odds | Decimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yankees ML vs Orioles | -165 | 1.61 |
| 2 | Dodgers ML vs Rockies | -210 | 1.48 |
| 3 | Braves ML vs Marlins | -180 | 1.56 |
Calculation: 1.61 × 1.48 × 1.56 = 3.71 (approximately +271 American odds)
$100 Bet Returns: $371 total ($271 profit)
The Problem: You're betting on three heavy favorites. Each individually has a 60-68% implied probability of winning. Combined, your parlay has only about a 27% chance of hitting. You're risking $100 to win $271 on something that will lose nearly 3 out of 4 times.
Better Approach: Bet $33 on each game individually. If you go 2-1 (which is likely given the odds), you'd profit approximately $20-25 instead of losing everything.
Soccer Parlay Example: Weekend Matches
A 3-team European soccer parlay using various bet types:
| Leg | Selection | Odds | Decimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City to Win | -200 | 1.50 |
| 2 | Both Teams to Score: Liverpool vs Arsenal | -125 | 1.80 |
| 3 | Bayern Munich -1.5 goals | +105 | 2.05 |
Calculation: 1.50 × 1.80 × 2.05 = 5.54 (approximately +454 American odds)
$75 Bet Returns: $415.50 total ($340.50 profit)
This parlay mixes different bet types, which is common in soccer betting. The risk is that you need Man City to win, both Liverpool and Arsenal to score, AND Bayern to win by 2+ goals. One defensive match or one upset ruins everything.
Parlay Payout Comparison Table
| # of Legs | Typical Odds | $100 Payout | Win Probability* | House Edge | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | +264 | $364 | 27.5% | ~10% | -$10.00 |
| 3 | +597 | $697 | 14.4% | ~12% | -$12.00 |
| 4 | +1,228 | $1,328 | 7.5% | ~15% | -$15.00 |
| 5 | +2,435 | $2,535 | 3.9% | ~18% | -$18.00 |
| 6 | +4,741 | $4,841 | 2.0% | ~22% | -$22.00 |
| 8 | +17,645 | $17,745 | 0.5% | ~28% | -$28.00 |
| 10 | +73,742 | $73,842 | 0.1% | ~35% | -$35.00 |
*Assuming 50% win rate per leg at -110 odds
Notice: The house edge increases dramatically with each leg. For every $100 you bet on a 10-team parlay, you can expect to lose $35 on average. This is why sportsbooks love parlays and actively promote them.
Types of Parlays
Traditional Parlay
Combines bets from different games. Most common type. All standard rules apply.
Same-Game Parlay (SGP)
Combines multiple bets from a single game. Example: Chiefs to win + Patrick Mahomes over 275 yards + Travis Kelce anytime TD.
SGP Considerations:
- Odds are adjusted for correlation (related outcomes)
- Usually worse value than traditional parlays
- Very popular but very profitable for sportsbooks
- House edge can exceed 25-30% on some SGPs
Teaser
A parlay where you get extra points on spreads/totals in exchange for lower payouts. Common in NFL betting. A 6-point teaser turns -7 into -1 and +3 into +9.
Round Robin
Creates multiple smaller parlays from a larger set of selections. Provides some protection against single-leg losses but at reduced payouts. For example, selecting 4 teams creates six 2-team parlays.
When to Use vs Not Use Parlays
When Parlays Can Make Sense
Entertainment Betting: You're watching Sunday NFL with friends and want action on multiple games. A $10 three-team parlay makes the day more exciting without risking serious money.
Promotional Opportunities: Your sportsbook offers a "Parlay Insurance" promotion where you get your stake back if one leg loses. This can reduce the effective house edge from 12% to 3-5%, making the bet much more reasonable.
Correlated Value Plays: You've identified genuine value on multiple independent games (you believe each has >55% win probability at -110 odds). In this rare case, a small parlay might be justified, though separate bets are still mathematically superior.
Bankroll Building (Carefully): You have a small bankroll ($50) and want to try to build it to a playable amount ($200+). A single small parlay might make sense as a calculated risk, understanding you'll likely lose but accepting that as the cost of attempting to build your roll.
When to Avoid Parlays
Serious Bankroll Management: If you're treating sports betting as an investment or trying to build long-term profit, parlays should be avoided almost entirely. The house edge is simply too high.
Chasing Losses: Never use parlays to try to recover from losses. The higher house edge means you're making your situation worse, not better.
Heavy Favorites: Parlaying multiple -200, -300, or -400 favorites gives you terrible risk/reward. You're risking significant amounts for small returns, and one upset wipes you out.
Same-Game Parlays Without Boosts: The correlation adjustments make these particularly poor value. Unless you have a significant odds boost (30%+), SGPs should be avoided.
Regular Strategy: If parlays are your primary betting strategy, you're almost certainly losing money long-term. The math doesn't support consistent parlay betting.
When You Don't Understand the Math: If you can't calculate your expected value or don't understand why the house edge increases with each leg, you shouldn't be betting parlays.
Real Bettor Scenarios
Scenario 1 - The Recreational Bettor: Mike bets $20 per week on NFL games. He can either make four $5 straight bets or one $20 four-team parlay. The straight bets give him an expected loss of about $0.90 per week. The parlay gives him an expected loss of $3.00 per week. Over a 17-week season, that's $15 vs $51 in expected losses. Mike should stick with straight bets.
Scenario 2 - The Entertainment Bettor: Sarah watches Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football every week. She budgets $30 for entertainment betting. She places a $10 three-team parlay each week knowing she'll probably lose, but it makes all three viewing sessions exciting. Sarah understands the math and has accepted the entertainment cost. This is reasonable parlay use.
Scenario 3 - The Promo Hunter: James finds a "50% Profit Boost on 4+ Leg Parlays" promotion. He builds a four-team parlay at +1228 odds, which becomes +1842 with the boost. This changes his expected value from -$15 to potentially +$5 on a $100 bet. James is using parlays strategically with promotions.
Common Parlay Mistakes (Expanded)
Mistake 1: Parlaying Heavy Favorites
Wrong Approach: "I'll parlay five -300 favorites. They can't all lose!"
Right Approach: Understand that -300 favorites lose about 25% of the time. Five of them together have only about a 24% chance of all winning.
Why It Matters: A bettor placing $100 on this parlay at typical odds (+180) expects to lose about $20. That same $100 split across five straight bets would expect to lose only about $5. You're quadrupling your expected losses for the illusion of safety.
Dollar Impact: A bettor making this mistake once per week loses an extra $780 per year compared to betting favorites straight.
Mistake 2: Adding Legs "For Better Odds"
Wrong Approach: "I really like the Lakers -5, but let me add two more games I don't care about to get +600 instead of -110."
Right Approach: Only bet games you've researched and have conviction on. Adding random legs destroys your edge.
Why It Matters: If you have a 55% edge on Lakers (positive expected value), but only 50% on the random adds, you're turning a winning bet into a losing proposition.
Real Example: You have a 55% win rate on games you research thoroughly. Your expected ROI on straight bets is about +5%. But when you add random legs to make parlays, your overall win rate drops to 52%, and the parlay structure means your ROI becomes -8%. You've turned a profitable strategy into a losing one.
Mistake 3: The Lottery Ticket Mentality
Wrong Approach: "It's only $10 for a chance at $50,000! I'll do one every week."
Right Approach: Calculate your actual expected value. That 10-team parlay has about a 0.1% chance of hitting, meaning you'd need to bet it 1,000 times to expect one win.
Why It Matters: At $10 per week for a year, you've spent $520. Your expected return is about $340, meaning you've lost $180 (35% of your total investment).
Five-Year Impact: That weekly $10 lottery parlay costs you $900 over five years compared to not betting at all, or $600 compared to making straight bets with the same money.
Mistake 4: Chasing Losses with Bigger Parlays
Wrong Approach: "I lost $200 this week. I'll put $100 on a 5-team parlay to win it all back!"
Right Approach: Stick to your bankroll management plan. If you're losing, review your strategy, don't increase your risk.
Why It Matters: A 5-team parlay has about a 4% chance of winning. You're trying to solve a problem (losses) by making lower-probability bets with higher house edges.
Spiral Example: Week 1: Lose $200 on straight bets. Week 2: Lose $100 chasing with a parlay. Week 3: Lose $150 on a bigger parlay. Week 4: Lose $200 on an even bigger parlay. You're now down $650 when you started down only $200. This is how bankrolls disappear.
Mistake 5: Ignoring Correlation in Same-Game Parlays
Wrong Approach: "I'll bet Chiefs -7 AND under 48 points. If they cover, the total probably goes under!"
Right Approach: Understand that sportsbooks adjust SGP odds for correlation. You're not getting the same value as an uncorrelated parlay.
Why It Matters: Those two legs separately might be +264 as a traditional parlay. As a same-game parlay, the book might only offer +180 because the outcomes are correlated.
House Edge Comparison: Traditional 2-team parlay: ~10% house edge. Correlated SGP: ~20-25% house edge. You're giving the sportsbook an extra 10-15% edge for the convenience of one bet slip.
Mistake 6: Not Shopping for Best Parlay Odds
Wrong Approach: Using the same sportsbook for all parlays without comparing odds.
Right Approach: Different sportsbooks offer different parlay payouts. Some pay +630 on a 3-teamer while others pay +600.
Why It Matters: That 30-point difference on a $100 bet is $30 in value. Over 20 parlays per year, that's $600 in lost value.
Annual Impact: A bettor placing $50 parlays twice weekly could gain $1,500+ per year simply by using the sportsbook with best parlay odds instead of the worst.
Strategic Implementation Guide
Step 1: Set a Parlay Budget
Separate your parlay bankroll from your serious betting bankroll. Allocate no more than 5-10% of your total betting funds to parlays. If you have a $1,000 bankroll, that means $50-100 maximum for parlay entertainment.
Action: Create a separate tracking category or even a separate sportsbook account for parlay bets. This prevents parlay losses from affecting your main strategy.
Step 2: Establish Strict Rules
Create non-negotiable parlay rules for yourself:
- Maximum 2-3 legs per parlay
- Maximum $10-20 per bet
- Only bet parlays with research on ALL legs
- Never chase losses with parlays
- Only use parlays 1-2 times per week maximum
Action: Write these rules down and keep them visible when betting. Set limits in your sportsbook account if possible.
Step 3: Shop for the Best Parlay Odds
Research which sportsbooks offer the best parlay payouts. Some books pay true odds or close to it, while others have significant house edges built in.
Action: Create a spreadsheet comparing 3-team, 4-team, and 5-team parlay payouts across your available sportsbooks. Always use the book with best payouts for your parlay bets.
Step 4: Exploit Parlay Promotions
Only increase parlay frequency when genuine promotional value exists:
- Parlay insurance (stake refund if one leg loses)
- Profit boosts of 30% or more
- Enhanced parlay payouts on specific events
Action: Subscribe to sportsbook promotional emails and check for parlay boosts before placing bets. Calculate whether the promotion actually creates positive expected value.
Step 5: Track Everything Separately
Maintain detailed records of your parlay performance separate from straight bets. Track:
- Win rate by number of legs
- ROI on 2-leg vs 3-leg vs 4-leg parlays
- Performance with vs without promotions
- Total amount wagered and returned
Action: Use a betting tracker like mybets.gg to tag all parlay bets. Review monthly to see if parlays are entertainment or if they're damaging your overall profitability.
Step 6: Calculate Your True Cost
Every month, calculate your parlay expected value and compare it to your actual results. This shows you the true cost of your parlay entertainment.
Action: Multiply your total parlay handle by the house edge percentage for your typical parlay size. Compare this expected loss to your actual loss. If actual losses exceed expected losses significantly, you may be making additional mistakes.
Step 7: Consider Alternatives
If you're betting parlays for entertainment, consider whether other bet types might offer similar excitement with better value:
- Live betting for in-game excitement
- Player props for rooting interest
- Small straight bets on multiple games
- Teasers (which have lower house edges than parlays)
Action: Experiment with one month of alternative betting instead of parlays. Track which approach gives you similar entertainment value with better financial results.
Real-World Historical Example: The Monthly Parlay Experiment
Let's examine a realistic scenario tracking two bettors over a full NFL season (September through February). Both start with $1,000 bankrolls and bet $100 per week, but use different strategies.
Bettor A: The Parlay Player
Makes one $100 four-team parlay each week, typical odds +1228
Bettor B: The Straight Bettor
Makes four $25 straight bets each week at -110 odds
Both bettors have the same handicapping skill: 55% win rate on individual picks.
| Month | Bettor A Parlays | Bettor A Result | Bettor A Bankroll | Bettor B Record | Bettor B Result | Bettor B Bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 0-4 | -$400 | $600 | 10-8 | +$41 | $1,041 |
| October | 1-4 (1 win at +1228) | +$828 | $1,428 | 11-9 | +$68 | $1,109 |
| November | 0-4 | -$400 | $1,028 | 9-7 | +$23 | $1,132 |
| December | 0-5 | -$500 | $528 | 13-9 | +$114 | $1,246 |
| January | 0-4 | -$400 | $128 | 10-6 | +$91 | $1,337 |
| February | 0-2 | -$128 | $0 | 5-3 | +$32 | $1,369 |
Key Takeaways from This Example
Volatility: Bettor A experienced wild swings, going from $600 to $1,428 after one parlay hit, then crashing to $0. Bettor B had steady, consistent growth.
Win Rates: Bettor A went 1-23 on parlays (4.3% hit rate) despite picking individual games at 55%. Bettor B went 58-42 (58% win rate) on the same handicapping skill.
Final Results: Bettor A lost their entire bankroll. Bettor B gained $369 (36.9% ROI over six months).
The Math: Bettor A needed to hit 2 of their 23 parlays to break even but hit only 1. At 4% probability per parlay, hitting 1 in 23 is actually slightly lucky. Bettor B's 58% win rate at -110 odds generated consistent positive expected value.
Lesson: Even with a significant edge in handicapping (55% win rate), parlay structure can turn winners into losers. The same skill applied to straight bets generated a 36.9% ROI, while parlays resulted in complete bankroll loss.
The Math: Why Parlays Favor the House
Let's compare $100 in straight bets vs a 3-team parlay:
Scenario: Three -110 Bets at 55% Win Rate
Option A: Three $33 Straight Bets
- Expected wins: 1.65 bets × $30 profit = $49.50
- Expected losses: 1.35 bets × $33 loss = $44.55
- Expected profit: +$4.95
Option B: One $100 Three-Team Parlay
- Win probability: 0.55 × 0.55 × 0.55 = 16.6%
- Expected value: (16.6% × $597) - (83.4% × $100)
- Expected profit: -$4.58
Difference: The parlay turns a profitable betting strategy into a losing one, a swing of $9.53 per $100 wagered.
Parlays at Different Sportsbooks
Not all parlay odds are equal. Some sportsbooks offer better parlay payouts:
| Sportsbook Type | 2-Team (-110) | 3-Team (-110) | 4-Team (-110) | 5-Team (-110) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Sportsbook | +260 (2.6-to-1) | +600 (6-to-1) | +1228 (12.28-to-1) | +2435 (24.35-to-1) |
| Reduced Juice Book | +264 (2.64-to-1) | +620 (6.2-to-1) | +1264 (12.64-to-1) | +2524 (25.24-to-1) |
| True Odds (No Vig) | +300 (3-to-1) | +700 (7-to-1) | +1500 (15-to-1) | +3100 (31-to-1) |
Analysis: Even reduced juice sportsbooks pay significantly less than true odds. A 5-team parlay at true odds should pay +3100, but standard books pay +2435—a difference of $665 on a $100 bet. This built-in house edge compounds with each leg added.
Platform Integration: Where to Place Parlays
If you do choose to place parlays, understanding platform differences can help minimize the house edge:
Best Platforms for Parlay Bettors
DraftKings: Offers "Same Game Parlays" with competitive odds and frequent parlay insurance promotions (get your stake back as a free bet if one leg fails).
FanDuel: Known for slightly better parlay payouts than industry average, particularly on 4+ team parlays. Frequent "Parlay Boost" promotions increase payouts by 10-20%.
BetMGM: "One Game Parlay" feature allows creative combinations. Regular "Parlay Plus" promotions add percentage boosts to winnings.
Caesars: Offers "Parlay Insurance" up to $25 on qualifying parlays—if one leg loses, you get your stake back.
Features to Look For
- Parlay Insurance: Refunds your stake (usually as free bet) if you lose by one leg
- Odds Boosts: Promotional enhanced payouts on specific parlays
- Cash Out Options: Ability to settle parlay early if some legs win
- Edit My Bet: Change legs before all games start (DraftKings, FanDuel)
- Reduced Juice Lines: Better base odds mean better parlay payouts
Platform Comparison for $100 Four-Team Parlay
| Platform | Standard Payout | With Promotions | Insurance Available |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | $1,228 | $1,350 (10% boost) | No |
| DraftKings | $1,228 | $1,228 | Yes (free bet refund) |
| BetMGM | $1,228 | $1,350 (10% boost) | No |
| Caesars | $1,228 | $1,228 | Yes (up to $25) |
Advanced Strategy: When Parlays Might Make Sense
While parlays are generally -EV, there are specific situations where they can be strategically justified:
1. Correlated Parlays (When Allowed)
Some outcomes genuinely increase the probability of others. Example: Betting on a team to win AND the total to go over. If they're winning, they're likely scoring points. Some books now allow "same game parlays" that don't properly price this correlation—creating rare +EV opportunities.
2. Promotional Plays
When sportsbooks offer parlay insurance or significant odds boosts, the math can shift in your favor. A 20% odds boost on a 4-team parlay changes the payout from +1228 to +1474, significantly reducing the house edge.
3. Lottery Ticket Entertainment
If you've allocated a specific "entertainment budget" (not your serious bankroll) and understand you're paying for the thrill, small parlays can provide hours of entertainment across multiple games for minimal cost.
4. Arbitrage and Hedge Opportunities
Advanced bettors sometimes use parlays as part of complex arbitrage strategies, particularly when one leg has already won and they can hedge the remaining legs at favorable odds on another platform.
Final Verdict: Should You Bet Parlays?
For Serious Bettors: No. The mathematical disadvantage is too significant. Stick to straight bets where your handicapping edge isn't diluted by compounding vig.
For Recreational Bettors: Occasionally, with strict limits. Set aside a small "fun budget" separate from serious wagers. Never bet more than 1-2% of your bankroll on any parlay.
For Entertainment Seekers: Yes, but acknowledge you're paying for entertainment, not making +EV bets. Keep stakes small and enjoy the sweat.
The Golden Rules of Parlay Betting
- Never parlay more than you'd bet on a single game
- Limit parlays to 2-3 teams maximum (house edge increases exponentially)
- Only parlay games you'd bet straight anyway
- Take advantage of insurance and boost promotions
- Track results honestly—most parlay bettors overestimate their success
- Never chase parlay losses with bigger parlays
Remember: Sportsbooks heavily promote parlays because they're highly profitable for the house. The flashy payouts and exciting multi-game sweats are designed to obscure the mathematical reality. If you choose to bet parlays, do so with eyes wide open, strict bankroll limits, and the understanding that you're sacrificing expected value for entertainment value.
The most successful sports bettors in the world rarely, if ever, bet parlays. There's a reason for that.