Quick Definition
Sharp betting is the professional, analytical approach to sports betting focused on long-term profitability through edge identification, value betting, and disciplined bankroll management.
Sharp bettors treat betting as an investment, not gambling. They rely on statistical models, mathematical analysis, and rigorous data tracking to identify market inefficiencies where the true probability of an outcome exceeds the implied probability offered by sportsbooks. Rather than betting for entertainment or on gut feeling, sharps only place wagers when they've identified a quantifiable edge that provides positive expected value (+EV) over thousands of bets.
The hallmark of sharp betting is consistency—maintaining disciplined bankroll management, shopping lines across multiple sportsbooks, and tracking closing line value (CLV) to validate their betting process regardless of short-term variance.
How Sharp Betting Works: Detailed Examples
NFL Example: Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
Scenario: Monday morning, the opening line is released for Sunday's game.
Sharp bettor's process:
- Step 1: Check opening lines across multiple sportsbooks
- DraftKings: Chiefs -2.5 (-110)
- FanDuel: Chiefs -3 (-108)
- BetMGM: Chiefs -2.5 (-105)
- Caesars: Chiefs -3 (-110)
- Step 2: Run statistical model incorporating:
- Offensive and defensive efficiency ratings
- Recent performance trends (last 5 games)
- Home/away splits
- Weather forecast (outdoor stadium, December game)
- Injury reports (Bills missing starting CB)
- Step 3: Model output: Chiefs should win by 4.2 points (58% win probability)
- Step 4: Calculate value:
- Chiefs -2.5 at -105 (BetMGM) = 51.2% implied probability
- Model probability: 58%
- Edge: 6.8% → STRONG BET
- Step 5: Place bet Monday morning: $300 on Chiefs -2.5 (-105) [3% of $10,000 bankroll]
- Step 6: Track closing line: By Sunday, line moves to Chiefs -4 (-110)
- Result: +1.5 point CLV (got better number than market closed at)
Outcome: Chiefs win 27-24. The bet wins, but more importantly, the sharp bettor achieved positive CLV—indicating their process identified value before the broader market adjusted. Even if this specific bet lost, the +1.5 point CLV suggests long-term profitability.
NBA Example: Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics
Scenario: Game day morning, news breaks that Celtics' starting point guard is questionable.
Sharp bettor's approach:
- Initial line: Celtics -4.5 (-110) at home
- News impact analysis:
- Starting PG averages 18 points, 7 assists
- Backup PG significantly worse defender
- Historical data: Celtics are -6.2 points per 100 possessions without starter
- Model adjustment: Line should be Celtics -2 or Bucks -1 if PG sits
- Sharp play: Wait for injury report
- PG ruled OUT 90 minutes before tip
- Line moves to Celtics -3 (-110) within 5 minutes
- Sharp immediately bets Bucks +3 (-110) for $250 (2.5% of bankroll)
- 10 minutes later, line moves to Celtics -1.5 as more sharps pound Bucks
Closing line value: Got Bucks +3, line closed at Bucks +1.5 = +1.5 point CLV
Result: Bucks win 112-108. The sharp bettor capitalized on being faster than the market to adjust to injury news, securing value before the line corrected.
MLB Example: New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
Scenario: Analyzing pitcher matchups and weather conditions for afternoon game.
Sharp analysis:
- Pitching matchup:
- Yankees starter: 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, strong against right-handed hitters
- Rays starter: 4.12 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, struggles in day games (5.20 ERA)
- Rays lineup: 7 of 9 hitters are right-handed
- Weather factor: 15 MPH wind blowing in from center field (reduces run scoring by 0.4 runs historically)
- Market odds:
- Moneyline: Yankees -145, Rays +125
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 runs
- Model calculation:
- Expected runs: Yankees 4.1, Rays 3.3 = 7.4 total runs
- Under 8.5 at -110 = 52.4% implied probability
- Model probability for under 8.5 runs: 61%
- Edge: 8.6% → MAXIMUM BET
- Bet placement: $400 on Under 8.5 (-110) at Pinnacle (4% of $10,000 bankroll—higher due to large edge)
Closing line: Under 8.5 moves to -125 by first pitch (sharp money hammered the under)
CLV calculation: Bet at -110 (52.4% implied), closed at -125 (55.6% implied) = +3.2% CLV
Final score: Yankees 4, Rays 3 (7 total runs). Under cashes easily.
College Football Example: Line Value Arbitrage
Scenario: Alabama vs Auburn rivalry game with emotional public betting.
Sharp observation:
- Opening line: Alabama -14 (-110)
- Public betting: 78% of bets on Alabama (square favorite)
- Line movement: Alabama -13.5 (-115) at most books
- Reverse line movement: Despite heavy public money on Alabama, line moves TOWARD Auburn
- Sharp interpretation: Professional money is backing Auburn +14
Sharp play: Bet Auburn +14 (-110) for $200, following the sharp money indicator
Result: Alabama wins 24-17 (covers by 7). Auburn +14 wins comfortably. The sharp bettor identified that books were adjusting the line based on sharp action despite public betting patterns suggesting otherwise.
Sharp Betting Strategy Comparison
| Strategy Component | Beginner Sharp | Intermediate Sharp | Professional Sharp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbook Accounts | 3-5 books | 7-10 books | 15+ books including offshore |
| Bankroll Size | $1,000-$5,000 | $10,000-$50,000 | $100,000+ |
| Unit Size | 2-3% flat | 1-5% scaled to edge | 0.5-7% Kelly Criterion |
| Bets Per Week | 5-15 bets | 15-40 bets | 50-200+ bets |
| Sports Covered | 1-2 major sports | 3-4 sports | All sports, international leagues |
| Analysis Tools | Spreadsheets, basic stats | Custom models, Python/R | Machine learning, proprietary algorithms |
| Expected ROI | 2-4% annually | 4-8% annually | 8-15% annually |
| CLV Target | Positive CLV 60% of time | Positive CLV 70% of time | Positive CLV 75%+ of time |
Sharp vs Square (Recreational) Betting
| Characteristic | Sharp Bettor | Square Bettor |
|---|---|---|
| Decision Making | Data, models, math | Gut feeling, favorites |
| Bet Selection | Only +EV opportunities | Entertainment, action |
| Bankroll | 1-3% units, strict | Random amounts |
| Line Shopping | Always, multiple books | Rarely, one book |
| Closing Line | Beats it consistently | Ignores it |
| Win Rate | 52-55% sustained | 48-50% or worse |
| Long-term | Profitable | Loses to vig |
When to Use Sharp Betting Strategies vs When to Avoid
✅ Best Situations for Sharp Betting
Early Week Lines (Monday-Wednesday):
- Lines are softest before sharp action moves them
- Books haven't fully adjusted to injuries, news, weather
- Example: NFL lines open Sunday night, best value Monday morning before steam moves them
- Expected edge: 1-3% higher than late-week betting
Lower-Profile Sports and Leagues:
- WNBA, MLS, international soccer leagues
- Books dedicate fewer resources to these markets
- Less sharp action means lines stay soft longer
- Example: Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) during COVID had massive edges for informed bettors
Player Props in Major Sports:
- Props markets are less efficient than main markets
- Books can't monitor every prop as closely
- Sharp bettors with deep player data can find consistent edges
- Example: Betting under on a player's points total when their primary defender has elite metrics
Live Betting Opportunities:
- Fast-moving lines create temporary inefficiencies
- Sharp bettors with models can capitalize on overreactions
- Example: NBA team down 8 at halftime, live line overadjusts, but team historically strong in third quarters
Weather-Impacted Games:
- MLB, NFL games with significant weather factors
- Public often undervalues or overvalues weather impact
- Sharp analysis of historical weather data provides edge
- Example: NFL totals in games with 20+ MPH winds historically go under 62% of the time
❌ Situations to Avoid Sharp Betting
Championship Games and Major Events:
- Super Bowl, NBA Finals, World Series get maximum sharp attention
- Lines are extremely efficient with millions in sharp money
- Very difficult to find edge against the sharpest market
- Alternative: Focus on props or smaller markets within these events
When You're Emotionally Compromised:
- Betting on your favorite team clouds judgment
- After a bad beat or losing streak (revenge betting)
- When trying to "get even" before end of month
- Sharp rule: Take 48 hours off after emotional response to a bet
Markets Where You Lack Information:
- Sports or leagues you don't follow closely
- International matches without access to injury/lineup data
- Niche markets without historical data to model
- Example: Don't bet Australian Rules Football without understanding the sport deeply
When Your Bankroll is Depleted:
- Below 50% of starting bankroll means unit sizes should decrease
- Never try to "bet your way back" with larger units
- Sharp approach: Pause, rebuild bankroll, reassess strategy
- Rule: If down 30%+ from peak, take 2 weeks off to analyze what went wrong
Closing Minutes Before Game Time:
- Lines are sharpest right before kickoff
- All information is priced in
- Unless you have breaking news (late injury), avoid betting at close
- Exception: Live betting once game starts and new information emerges
Core Principles of Sharp Betting
1. Only Bet Positive EV (+EV)
Sharp approach:
- Calculate implied probability from odds
- Estimate true win probability
- If true probability > implied probability → bet
- If not → pass, no matter how "sure" you feel
Example:
- Odds: +150 (40% implied probability)
- Your model: 47% win probability
- Edge: 7% → BET
2. Line Shopping
Sharp bettors have accounts at 5-10+ sportsbooks:
Example: Lakers vs Celtics
| Sportsbook | Lakers Spread | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Book A | -3.5 | -110 |
| Book B | -3 | -108 |
| Book C | -3.5 | -105 |
Sharp play: Bet Lakers -3 at -108 (Book B) - best number and best price.
Impact: Half-point differences worth 1-2% EV. Over 1,000 bets, that's massive.
3. Beat the Closing Line
Sharps aim for positive Closing Line Value (CLV):
Example:
- Monday: Bet Chiefs -3 (-110)
- Sunday closing: Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
- +1.5 point CLV ✅
Consistent +CLV = Long-term profit (regardless of short-term results).
4. Strict Bankroll Management
Sharp approach:
- 1-3% per bet (never more than 5%)
- Scale to edge (bigger edge = bigger bet within limits)
- Use Kelly Criterion or fixed units
- Never chase losses
How Sharps Find Edges
1. Statistical Models
- Build predictive models (regression, machine learning)
- Factor in team stats, player metrics, situational factors
- Compare model output to market odds
- Bet when model shows significant edge
2. Reverse Line Movement (RLM)
When line moves opposite public betting:
- Patriots -7: 75% of public bets
- Line moves to Patriots -6.5
- Sharps betting Jets → Follow them
3. Early Week Betting
- Lines are softest Monday-Wednesday
- Books haven't adjusted to sharp action yet
- Get better numbers before line tightens
4. Market Inefficiencies
- Lower-profile leagues (NCAAB, WNBA)
- Props markets (less efficient than main markets)
- Live betting (fast-moving, exploitable)
Common Sharp Betting Mistakes (And How to Avoid Them)
❌ Mistake #1: Betting Too Many Games
Wrong approach: Betting 15-20 games per day across multiple sports to stay "active" and have action on every game.
Example: John bets $100 on 18 NFL games every Sunday. His win rate is 50%, but with -110 odds, he needs 52.4% to break even. Over 16 weeks (288 bets), he loses $1,267 to the vig despite winning half his bets.
Right approach: Wait for 2-4 strong +EV opportunities per week where your edge is 3%+ based on your model.
Example: Sarah bets $200 on 4 carefully selected games per week (64 bets over 16 weeks). Her model identifies 4% average edge, and she hits 54% winners. Result: +$1,024 profit.
Why it matters: Quality over quantity. Each additional bet without edge erodes your bankroll through vig. Professional sharps pass on 90% of potential bets.
❌ Mistake #2: Ignoring Closing Line Value
Wrong approach: Only tracking wins and losses, celebrating 60% win rate without checking CLV.
Example: Mike bets late (Saturday night for Sunday NFL). He hits 58% of his bets over the season but has -2.1% CLV (consistently getting worse numbers than closing line). His ROI: -1.3% because he's betting into sharp lines with no edge.
Right approach: Track CLV on every bet. Aim for positive CLV 65%+ of the time.
Example: Lisa bets early (Monday for Sunday NFL). She hits only 53% of her bets but has +2.8% CLV. Her ROI: +4.7% because she's consistently finding value before the market adjusts.
Why it matters: CLV is the strongest predictor of long-term profitability. You can be profitable with 48% win rate if your CLV is high enough. Conversely, 55% win rate with negative CLV means you're getting lucky, not skilled.
Dollar impact: On $50,000 wagered annually, +3% CLV = $1,500 in expected value vs -3% CLV = -$1,500 in expected value. That's a $3,000 swing.
❌ Mistake #3: Overvaluing Parlays and Teasers
Wrong approach: Betting 4-team parlays at +1200 to "maximize profit" on "sure things."
Example: Tom bets $100 on a 4-team parlay every week (52 weeks). Each leg has 55% true win probability (slight edge). His expected win rate on parlays: 9.15%. He needs 8.33% to break even at +1200. Sounds good, right? Wrong. He hits 4 parlays all year (7.7%) and loses $1,700.
Why it fails: Variance is massive. Even with edge on each leg, the compounding effect makes parlays extremely volatile. Plus, many books reduce parlay payouts below true odds.
Right approach: Bet straight bets. If you have edge on 4 games, bet them individually.
Example: Sarah has the same 4 games with 55% edge. She bets $100 on each straight at -110. Over 52 weeks (208 bets), she hits 55% (114 wins). Profit: $3,220.
Why it matters: Straight bets have 4.5% vig vs 15-30% vig on parlays. Your edge compounds positively with straight bets, negatively with parlays.
❌ Mistake #4: Inconsistent Unit Sizing
Wrong approach: Betting random amounts based on "confidence" – $500 on games you "love," $100 on games you "like."
Example: Dave has a $10,000 bankroll. He bets $500 (5%) on 10 "confidence plays" and $100 (1%) on 40 "regular plays." His confidence plays go 6-4 (+$800), but his regular plays go 24-16 (+$640). Total: +$1,440, but he risked 5% of bankroll repeatedly.
Problem: A bad run on "confidence plays" (3-7 stretch) would cost him $2,300 (23% of bankroll), potentially tilting him.
Right approach: Flat bet 1-3% or scale to edge using Kelly Criterion.
Example: Rachel has the same $10,000 bankroll. She bets 2% ($200) on all plays with 2-4% edge, and 3% ($300) on plays with 4%+ edge. Same 50 bets, similar distribution. Result: +$1,380 with 66% less volatility and no tilt risk.
Why it matters: Bankroll preservation. Sharp betting is about surviving variance. Inconsistent sizing leads to tilt, overconfidence bias, and eventual busto.
❌ Mistake #5: Failing to Specialize
Wrong approach: Betting NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, soccer, tennis, and MMA because "more opportunities."
Example: Chris spreads his attention across 7 sports. He spends 5 hours per week on research, less than 1 hour per sport. His models are superficial, his edges are minimal (0.5-1%), and his ROI after one year: -2.1%.
Right approach: Specialize in 1-2 sports, become an expert.
Example: Amanda focuses exclusively on NBA. She spends 15 hours per week analyzing player matchups, pace metrics, and rest situations. Her model identifies 3-5% edges consistently. Her ROI after one year: +6.8%.
Why it matters: Beating the market requires information edge. You can't develop deep expertise across multiple sports. Sharps specialize ruthlessly.
Time value: 500 hours of NBA research > 70 hours each across 7 sports. Depth beats breadth in sharp betting.
❌ Mistake #6: Not Adapting to Book Limits
Wrong approach: Continuing to bet the same way after books limit your account to $50-$100 max bets.
Example: Steve builds a profitable system, but after 6 months, his primary book limits him to $75 max bets. He keeps betting there, frustrated that his $10,000 bankroll can't grow efficiently. He makes $1,200 over the next year (12% ROI, but only on $10,000 total wagered).
Right approach: Diversify across more books proactively, use betting agents, or move to sharp-friendly books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker).
Example: When Jennifer gets limited at Book A, she already has accounts at 12 other books. She shifts volume to Books B-F, uses betting agents for offshore books, and maintains her $50,000 annual handle. Same 12% ROI = $6,000 profit.
Why it matters: Getting limited is a "good problem" (means you're winning), but failing to adapt caps your earning potential. Professional sharps have 15-20+ outs to maintain volume.
Strategic Implementation Guide: Becoming a Sharp Bettor
Step 1: Build Your Foundation (Weeks 1-4)
Action items:
- Open accounts at 5-7 sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, Pinnacle, Bookmaker)
- Deposit $500-$1,000 per book to avoid looking like a sharp immediately
- Learn to calculate implied probability: Odds of -110 = 52.4% implied probability
- Set up tracking system: mybets.gg or detailed spreadsheet
- Study one sport deeply: Choose NFL, NBA, or MLB based on interest
Tools needed:
- Odds comparison site (OddsJam, Oddschecker)
- Line movement tracker (Action Network PRO)
- Spreadsheet software (Excel, Google Sheets)
- Basic statistics knowledge (mean, standard deviation, probability)
Expected outcome: Understanding of market mechanics, accounts ready, no bets placed yet (learning phase).
Step 2: Develop Your Analytical Edge (Weeks 5-12)
Action items:
- Build a simple predictive model in Excel:
- NFL: Points scored/allowed, yards per play, turnover differential
- NBA: Offensive/defensive rating, pace, rest days
- MLB: Starting pitcher ERA, bullpen ERA, team wOBA
- Backtest your model onlast 2 seasons of data
- Compare your predictions to market lines daily for 4 weeks without betting
- Identify where your model consistently differs from market by 2%+ (these are potential edges)
- Study sharp betting resources: "Sharp Sports Betting" by Stanford Wong, Pinnacle's betting resources
- Join betting communities: Reddit r/sportsbook (filter for quality), Discord groups focused on analytics
Example model output: Your model predicts Patriots 55% win probability vs. Bills. Market offers Patriots +120 (45.5% implied). Difference: 9.5% edge. This is a potential bet.
Expected outcome: Working model that generates 3-5 betting opportunities per week with 2-5% theoretical edge.
Step 3: Start Small-Scale Betting (Weeks 13-26)
Action items:
- Begin betting 0.5-1% of bankroll per play (if $5,000 bankroll = $25-$50 bets)
- Only bet when your model shows 3%+ edge over market
- Track every bet: date, sport, bet type, odds, stake, edge calculation, result
- Review weekly: Calculate ROI, win rate, average edge, closing line value
- Adjust model based on results: Which bet types are profitable? Which are losing?
Target metrics after 100 bets:
- Closing Line Value (CLV): +1.5% or better (you're getting better odds than closing)
- ROI: 2-5% (realistic for beginners with edge)
- Win rate: 52-54% on -110 bets
Expected outcome: Small profit or break-even, but positive CLV indicates you're beating the market. This is the key metric.
Step 4: Scale and Optimize (Months 7-12)
Action items:
- Increase bet sizing to 1-2% per play as confidence grows
- Expand to 8-12 sportsbooks to maximize line shopping and avoid limits
- Automate data collection: Python scripts, API access, or paid data services
- Refine model with advanced metrics:
- NFL: EPA (Expected Points Added), success rate, DVOA
- NBA: Net rating by lineup, travel distance, altitude adjustments
- MLB: Statcast data, park factors, umpire tendencies
- Network with other sharps: Share non-proprietary insights, learn new approaches
- Prepare for limits: Research betting agents, Asian bookmakers, betting exchanges
Expected outcome: Consistent 4-7% ROI, $50,000-$100,000 annual handle, first book limits appearing (badge of honor).
Real-World Historical Example: The Haralabos Voulgaris Story
Background: Haralabos "Bob" Voulgaris became one of the most successful NBA bettors in history, reportedly winning millions annually before joining the Dallas Mavericks front office in 2018.
His Sharp Betting Approach:
Specialization: Voulgaris focused exclusively on NBA betting. While others spread attention across multiple sports, he became the world's foremost expert on NBA betting markets.
Analytical edge: In the early 2000s, he built proprietary models incorporating:
- Pace-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency (before it was mainstream)
- Rest and travel factors (back-to-backs, 4-games-in-5-nights)
- Lineup-specific data (how teams performed with specific player combinations)
- Referee tendencies (certain refs called more fouls, affecting totals)
Line shopping mastery: Voulgaris maintained accounts at 20+ sportsbooks globally. He would bet $50,000+ on a single game, but split across multiple books to get the best price and avoid immediate limits.
Live betting innovation: He was an early pioneer of in-game betting, watching games with his model running in real-time. When his model showed 5%+ edge on live lines, he would bet aggressively.
Bankroll management: Despite having a multi-million dollar bankroll, Voulgaris typically bet 1-3% per play. On his highest-edge opportunities (8-10% edge), he would bet up to 5%, but never more.
Key Results:
- Peak years (2010-2015): Estimated $1-4 million profit annually
- ROI: Approximately 5-8% over thousands of bets
- Volume: $10-20 million wagered per NBA season
- Closing Line Value: Consistently beat closing lines by 2-3 points
What Made Him Sharp:
- Information edge: His models were 3-5 years ahead of the market in incorporating advanced metrics
- Execution edge: He got down bets quickly when lines were soft, before the market adjusted
- Discipline: He only bet when his model showed significant edge, sometimes going days without a bet
- Adaptation: As books got sharper, he evolved to live betting and international markets
The lesson: Voulgaris didn't win by betting on "hot teams" or "gut feelings." He won through specialization, quantitative analysis, superior execution, and ironclad discipline. This is the blueprint for sharp betting.
Platform Integration: Where Sharp Bettors Operate
Tier 1: Sharp-Friendly Books (Accept Winners)
| Sportsbook | Max Bet Limits | Limit Policy | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | $50,000+ | Never limits winners | High-volume sharps, line comparison baseline |
| Bookmaker.eu | $25,000+ | Rarely limits | Reduced juice lines (-105), high limits |
| BetOnline | $10,000+ | Tolerates sharps | Live betting, props |
| Heritage Sports | $10,000+ | Sharp-friendly | Reduced juice, reliable payouts |
Tier 2: Mainstream Books (Will Limit Winners)
| Sportsbook | Initial Limits | Limit Timeline | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | $5,000-$10,000 | 3-6 months if winning | Use for line shopping, mix in parlays/promos |
| FanDuel | $5,000-$10,000 | 3-6 months if winning | Best for same-game parlays, promos |
| BetMGM | $3,000-$5,000 | 2-4 months if winning | Good early lines, quick to limit |
| Caesars | $3,000-$5,000 | 2-4 months if winning | Generous promos, but aggressive limits |
Tier 3: Betting Exchanges (Peer-to-Peer)
| Exchange | Commission | Liquidity | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2-5% | High (UK/Europe) | No limits, can bet or lay, best odds |
| Matchbook | 1-2% | Medium | Lowest commission, accepts US players |
| Betdaq | 2-5% | Medium | Alternative to Betfair, good for soccer |
Sharp Bettor's Multi-Book Strategy:
- Primary volume: Pinnacle, Bookmaker (60% of bets) - these never limit
- Line shopping: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars (30% of bets) - use until limited
- Specialized plays: Betfair for high liquidity, BetOnline for live betting (10% of bets)
- Camouflage: Mix in occasional parlay or underdog ML bet at mainstream books to delay limits
- Preparation: Have 15-20 accounts ready before you need them
Tools for Multi-Book Management:
- OddsJam: Real-time odds comparison across 50+ books, identifies best lines instantly
- Action Network PRO: Line movement tracking, steam moves, sharp action indicators
- Pikkit: Automated bet tracking across multiple books
- RebelBetting: Arbitrage and value bet finder (use cautiously, can trigger limits)
Final note on platform strategy: Sharp bettors treat sportsbook accounts like inventory. You'll burn through mainstream books in 6-12 months. Plan accordingly by opening accounts early, maintaining good standing, and always having new outs ready. The ability to get bets down at optimal prices is just as important as finding the edge itself.
💡 Sharp Betting Bottom Line: Sharp betting isn't about winning every bet—it's about consistently finding and exploiting market inefficiencies through rigorous analysis, disciplined bankroll management, and superior execution. Most bettors fail because they lack the patience to specialize, the discipline to bet only when they have an edge, and the infrastructure to get optimal prices. Master these fundamentals, and you'll join the 5% who actually profit long-term.