What is Moneyline?

Quick Definition

A moneyline bet is the simplest bet in sports - you're picking which team will win the game outright. No point spreads, no margins, just pick the winner.

The favorite has negative odds (risk more to win less). The underdog has positive odds (risk less to win more).

Moneyline betting is the purest form of sports wagering, stripping away the complexity of spreads and totals. Whether you're betting on the Super Bowl or a Tuesday night baseball game, the question is simple: who wins?

How Moneyline Odds Work

Reading Negative Odds (Favorites)

Negative odds tell you how much you need to bet to win $100.

Example: Lakers -200

• Bet $200 to win $100 profit
• If Lakers win: You get $300 back ($200 stake + $100 profit)
• If Lakers lose: You lose your $200 stake

Reading Positive Odds (Underdogs)

Positive odds tell you how much you win on a $100 bet.

Example: Pistons +170

• Bet $100 to win $170 profit
• If Pistons win: You get $270 back ($100 stake + $170 profit)
• If Pistons lose: You lose your $100 stake

Detailed Real-World Examples

NFL Example: Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Game Scenario: Chiefs at home, coming off a bye week, Raiders on short rest after Monday night game.

Moneyline Odds:

• Chiefs -280
• Raiders +230

Your Bet: $100 on Raiders +230

Analysis: While Chiefs are clearly better, the Raiders have covered in 4 of last 5 divisional games. The +230 odds mean you only need Raiders to win 30.3% of the time to break even, but your analysis suggests they have a 38% chance based on divisional rivalry history and Chiefs' tendency to play down to competition.

Outcome: Raiders pull off the upset 20-17. Your $100 bet returns $330 ($100 stake + $230 profit). A spread bettor who took Raiders +7.5 would have won less juice, but you captured the full upset value.

NBA Example: Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

Game Scenario: Regular season game in Miami, Celtics missing two rotation players, Heat fully healthy.

Moneyline Odds:

• Celtics -145
• Heat +125

Your Bet: $200 on Heat +125

Calculation: Heat implied probability is 44.4% (100 / 225 = 0.444). Your model accounts for injuries and home court, estimating Heat's actual win probability at 52%. This represents a 7.6% edge.

Outcome: Heat win 108-104. Your $200 returns $450 ($200 stake + $250 profit). If you'd bet Celtics -145 instead, you'd have lost $200. The injury information was key to finding this value.

MLB Example: New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

Game Scenario: Yankees ace Gerrit Cole (2.89 ERA) facing Rays with backup starter (4.75 ERA).

Moneyline Odds:

• Yankees -165
• Rays +145

Your Bet: $165 on Yankees -165

Calculation: Yankees need to win 62.3% of the time to break even. With Cole on the mound against a weak lineup and inferior pitcher, your analysis shows 68% win probability. The 5.7% edge justifies laying the juice.

Outcome: Yankees win 5-2 behind Cole's 7 shutout innings. Your $165 bet returns $265 ($165 stake + $100 profit). This represents a 60.6% ROI on a single game.

NHL Example: Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes

Game Scenario: Avalanche at home with elite goalie Alexandar Georgiev, Coyotes on 3rd game in 4 nights.

Moneyline Odds:

• Avalanche -320
• Coyotes +260

Your Decision: Pass on this game

Analysis: While Avalanche should win, -320 requires a 76.2% win rate to break even. Even in a mismatch, NHL variance is too high. You'd need to win more than 3 out of 4 similar bets to profit. The spread alternative (Avalanche -1.5 at +115) offers better value if you're confident in a multi-goal win.

Moneyline Odds Across Sports

Sport	Matchup	Favorite	Underdog	Implied Prob
NFL	Chiefs vs Broncos	Chiefs -220	Broncos +180	69% / 36%
NBA	Celtics vs Wizards	Celtics -350	Wizards +280	78% / 26%
MLB	Dodgers vs Marlins	Dodgers -180	Marlins +155	64% / 39%
NHL	Oilers vs Sharks	Oilers -160	Sharks +135	62% / 43%
Soccer	Man City vs Fulham	City -250	Fulham +600	71% / 14%
UFC	Champion vs Challenger	Champion -400	Challenger +320	80% / 24%
Tennis	Djokovic vs Qualifier	Djokovic -850	Qualifier +575	89% / 15%

Note: Implied probabilities add up to more than 100% due to the vig (sportsbook commission).

Moneyline vs Point Spread

Understanding when to bet moneyline vs spread is crucial:

Factor	Bet Moneyline	Bet Spread
Confidence Level	Team will WIN but unsure by how much	Team will WIN BY enough to cover
Favorite Juice	When spread juice is worse	When ML juice is too high (-300+)
Underdog Value	Dog can WIN outright	Dog stays competitive but loses
Close Games	Odds near pick 'em (-110/-110)	Usually similar value

Example: When Spread Is Better

Chiefs vs Broncos

• Moneyline: Chiefs -300 (risk $300 to win $100)
• Spread: Chiefs -7 (-110) (risk $110 to win $100)

If you think Chiefs win by 10+, the spread offers much better value than laying -300.

Example: When Moneyline Is Better

Bills vs Dolphins

• Moneyline: Bills -130 (risk $130 to win $100)
• Spread: Bills -2.5 (-110)

If you think Bills win a close game by 1-2 points, moneyline protects you from a backdoor cover.

When to Use Moneyline Betting

Best Situations for Moneyline Bets

Small Favorites in NFL (-110 to -150): The sweet spot where you're not laying massive juice but backing the better team. These games often represent the best risk/reward balance in football betting.

MLB Underdog Value: Baseball's high variance makes underdogs profitable long-term. When you find a +140 underdog with a quality starting pitcher against a public favorite, moneylines capture full value that run lines can't match.

NBA Back-to-Back Spots: When a rested home team faces an opponent on the second night of a back-to-back, the moneyline often provides better value than laying points. The fatigued team might lose outright rather than just fail to cover.

NHL Divisional Games: Familiarity and rivalry intensity make divisional games closer than odds suggest. A +165 underdog that knows its opponent's systems has real upset potential.

Injury-Impacted Games: When a star player is ruled out late, the moneyline can move slower than it should. Sharp bettors who act quickly can capture value before the market fully adjusts.

Situations to Avoid Moneyline Bets

Heavy Favorites Beyond -300: The math becomes punishing. You need an 80%+ win rate, and one upset devastates your bankroll. Even "sure things" lose 15-20% of the time in professional sports.

NFL Road Favorites of 7+ Points: These teams often win but fail to cover. The moneyline juice is typically -280 or worse, while the game outcome is less certain than odds suggest. Road teams facing motivated home underdogs are upset-prone.

NBA Regular Season Blowout Potential: When a great team is -400 against a tanking opponent, the spread (-9.5 at -110) offers better value. The favorite will likely win by double digits, making the point spread the smarter play.

Parlaying Multiple Favorites: A three-team parlay of -200, -180, and -250 favorites pays +234, but requires all three to win. Statistically, you're better off betting these straight and accepting smaller returns.

Chasing Losses with "Lock" Favorites: When bettors are down, they often bet heavy favorites to "guarantee" a win. This emotional betting leads to overlaying juice on games where the favorite is overvalued.

Moneyline Betting Strategy

When to Bet Favorites

• Small favorites (-110 to -150): Reasonable risk/reward
• When spread is too risky: Confident in win, not margin
• MLB and NHL: Where upsets are common and spreads are run lines
• Closing line value: When you bet early and the line moves in your favor

When to Bet Underdogs

• Value spots: You believe true probability exceeds implied odds
• Divisional games: Familiarity breeds closer games
• Situational spots: Team on extra rest, revenge games, playoff implications
• Public fade opportunities: When 70%+ of bets are on the favorite but the line isn't moving
• Home underdogs: Historically profitable across all sports, especially NFL

When to Avoid Moneylines

• Heavy favorites (-300+): One upset wipes out multiple wins
• When spread offers better value: Compare the two
• Parlaying favorites: Compounds the risk for minimal reward
• Emotional betting: Never bet a team just because you're a fan

The Hidden Cost of Heavy Favorites

Betting heavy favorites seems safe but the math is brutal:

Favorite Odds	Win Rate Needed to Break Even	If You Win 80%
-200	66.7%	+6.7% ROI
-300	75.0%	+1.7% ROI
-400	80.0%	Break even
-500	83.3%	-4.2% ROI
-600	85.7%	-8.3% ROI

Key Insight: At -500 odds, even winning 80% of your bets loses money. One upset in every 5-6 bets wipes out all profits.

Moneyline in Different Sports

NFL Moneylines

• Home underdogs historically profitable (54-56% ATS)
• Divisional underdogs often undervalued due to familiarity
• Avoid huge favorites in any-given-Sunday league
• Prime time underdogs perform better than day games

NBA Moneylines

• Rest and travel matter significantly (teams on 3+ days rest win 58%)
• Back-to-back games favor home team dramatically
• Star player status is critical (check injury reports 90 minutes before tip)
• Late-season tanking teams become underdog value plays

MLB Moneylines

• Starting pitcher is everything (check recent performance and matchup history)
• Underdogs win ~40% of games (highest in major sports)
• Fade public favorites on popular teams (Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox)
• Day-after-night-game spots favor home teams
• Weather impacts totals more than moneylines, but wind helps underdogs

NHL Moneylines

• Goalie matchup is key factor (elite goalie can single-handedly win games)
• Home ice advantage is real (~55% win rate)
• High variance sport - avoid big favorites
• Back-to-back games heavily favor rested team
• Playoff-push teams in March/April offer value

Converting Moneyline to Probability

To find value, you need to compare implied probability to your estimate:

For Negative Odds

Implied Probability = Odds / (Odds + 100)

Example: -150 → 150 / 250 = 60%

For Positive Odds

Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)

Example: +200 → 100 / 300 = 33.3%

Finding Value

If your analysis says a team has 45% chance to win but odds imply 33% (+200), that's a value bet with 12% edge.

Common Moneyline Mistakes

Mistake 1: Ignoring Implied Probability

Wrong Approach: "The Chiefs always win, I'll bet them at any price. I'm putting $500 on Chiefs -450 because it's free money."

Right Approach: "Chiefs are -450, meaning I need them to win 81.8% of the time to break even. Looking at their schedule, opponent, and historical data, do they really win this game 82%+ of the time? Or is there 15-20% upset risk I'm ignoring?"

Why It Matters: Over 20 bets at -450, you need to win 17 times just to break even. If you win 16 times (80% - an excellent rate!), you'd bet $9,000 total, win back $8,889, for a loss of $111. One extra upset and you're down significantly.

Mistake 2: Parlaying Heavy Favorites

Wrong Approach: "I'll parlay three -300 favorites. They can't all lose! My $100 bet pays $237 instead of winning $33 on each straight bet."

Right Approach: "Each -300 favorite has roughly a 25% chance of losing. The probability all three win is 0.75 × 0.75 × 0.75 = 42.2%. I'm getting +237 odds (29.7% implied probability) on something that hits 42% - but if even ONE loses, I lose everything."

Why It Matters: Parlays feel exciting but destroy your expected value. Those three favorites straight would require $900 in bets to win $300. The parlay requires only $100 but wins far less often. Over 100 parlays, you'd win ~42 times for +$9,954 in returns on $10,000 wagered - a $46 loss. Betting straight would net ~$250 profit.

Mistake 3: Chasing with Bigger Favorites

Wrong Approach: "I'm down $500 this week. I need a sure thing to get back to even. I'll bet $600 on this -600 favorite to win $100 and start recovering."

Right Approach: "I'm down $500, which means I made poor bets or got unlucky. Betting a -600 favorite doesn't change my process. I should bet my normal unit size on value plays, not chase with inflated stakes on terrible odds."

Why It Matters: Chasing losses with heavy favorites is how bettors go broke. That -600 favorite still loses 14-15% of the time. When it does, you're now down $1,100 instead of $500, and the emotional spiral intensifies. Proper bankroll management means betting 1-3% of your roll per play, regardless of recent results.

Mistake 4: Betting Moneyline When Spread Offers Better Value

Wrong Approach: "I think the Bills beat the Patriots, so I'll bet Bills -320 moneyline for $320 to win $100."

Right Approach: "Bills are -320 moneyline but only -7.5 (-110) on the spread. If I think Bills win, they probably win by more than a touchdown. I'll risk $110 to win $100 on the spread instead of $320 to win $100 on the moneyline."

Why It Matters: Both bets require the Bills to win, but the spread bet risks $210 less for the same $100 profit. Over a season of similar spots, this difference compounds dramatically. If you make 50 such bets, you'd risk $16,000 on moneylines versus $5,500 on spreads for identical profits.

Mistake 5: Overvaluing Recent Results

Wrong Approach: "The Lakers have won 8 straight games, they're on fire! I'm betting them -240 because they can't lose."

Right Approach: "The Lakers are 8-0, but 6 of those wins came against sub-.500 teams. Tonight they face a top-5 defense that matches up well against their style. The winning streak might have inflated the line - is there underdog value on the opponent?"

Why It Matters: Public bettors chase hot teams, inflating lines beyond true value. Professional bettors fade these situations. A team on an 8-game win streak might be due for regression, especially if underlying metrics (point differential, shooting percentages) suggest they've been lucky.

Mistake 6: Ignoring Sport-Specific Factors

Wrong Approach: "I bet NFL spreads successfully, so I'll use the same approach for MLB moneylines. A -200 favorite is a -200 favorite."

Right Approach: "MLB has far more variance than NFL. A -200 baseball favorite (starting pitcher can dominate) is different from a -200 football favorite (11 players per side, more unpredictability). I need sport-specific strategies."

Why It Matters: MLB underdogs win ~40% of games. NBA home teams win ~60%. NFL favorites cover ~50% against the spread. Each sport requires unique analysis. Applying NFL strategies to MLB will lose money because the underlying probabilities are completely different.

Strategic Implementation Guide

Step 1: Build Your Probability Model

Before betting any moneyline, develop a method to estimate true win probability. This can be as simple as adjusting power ratings for home/away, injuries, and rest, or as complex as a statistical model with dozens of variables.

Action Items:

• Track team performance metrics (offensive/defensive ratings, recent form)
• Account for situational factors (rest days, travel, motivation)
• Create a spreadsheet that outputs win probability for each matchup
• Test your model against historical results to validate accuracy

Step 2: Calculate Implied Probability from Odds

For every game you consider, convert the sportsbook's odds to implied probability. This shows what the book thinks will happen and reveals where your opinion differs.

Action Items:

• Use the formulas: Negative odds = Odds/(Odds+100), Positive odds = 100/(Odds+100)
• Create a quick-reference chart for common odds (-150 = 60%, +150 = 40%, etc.)
• Compare implied probability across multiple sportsbooks to find the best line
• Account for vig by removing the bookmaker's edge to find true implied probability

Step 3: Identify Value Bets

Value exists when your estimated probability exceeds the implied probability by a meaningful margin (typically 3-5% minimum to overcome vig and variance).

Action Items:

• Compare your probability to implied probability for every game
• Only bet when you have 5%+ edge (e.g., you estimate 50% win probability, odds imply 43%)
• Track your edge estimates vs actual results to calibrate your model
• Be honest about uncertainty - if you're not confident in your estimate, skip the game

Step 4: Determine Optimal Bet Sizing

Use the Kelly Criterion or a fractional Kelly approach to size bets based on your edge and bankroll. Never bet more than 3-5% of your total bankroll on a single game.

Action Items:

• Kelly formula: (Edge / Odds) = Bet size as % of bankroll
• Example: 10% edge at +200 odds = (0.10 / 2.0) = 5% of bankroll
• Use fractional Kelly (0.25 to 0.5 Kelly) to reduce variance
• Set hard maximums (never more than 5% on any single bet)

Step 5: Shop for the Best Line

Having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows you to always get the best price. A difference between -150 and -140 might seem small, but compounds over hundreds of bets.

Action Items:

• Open accounts at 3-5 sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.)
• Use odds comparison sites to quickly find the best available line
• Track how much extra profit line shopping generates over time
• Act quickly when you find value - lines move fast on sharp action

Step 6: Track Everything

Detailed record-keeping separates winning bettors from losers. Track not just results, but the reasoning behind each bet, the closing line, and sport-specific factors.

Action Items:

• Record every bet: date, sport, teams, odds, stake, result, profit/loss
• Note your estimated win probability and actual implied probability
• Track closing line value (did the line move toward or away from your bet?)
• Separate results by sport, bet type, odds range, and situation
• Review monthly to identify strengths and weaknesses

Step 7: Continuously Refine Your Process

The sports betting market is efficient and constantly adjusting. What worked last season might not work this season. Stay sharp by learning from results and adapting.

Action Items:

• Review losing bets to understand what went wrong (bad luck vs bad process)
• Identify patterns in your profitable bets (which situations work best?)
• Read sharp betting analysis and learn new approaches
• Update your model based on new information and changing league dynamics
• Accept that even perfect process leads to losing streaks - trust the math

Real-World Historical Example: 2023 MLB Season Underdog Strategy

Let's examine a documented approach to MLB moneyline betting focused on specific underdog situations during the 2023 season.

The Strategy

Bet on home underdogs of +120 to +180 when:

• Starting pitcher has ERA under 4.00 in last 5 starts
• Opponent is a public favorite (Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs)
• Public betting percentage is 65%+ on the favorite
• Game is not nationally televised

Monthly Results

Month	Bets	Wins	Losses	Win Rate	Avg Odds	Profit (100 units)	ROI
April	12	6	6	50.0%	+145	+270	+22.5%
May	18	9	9	50.0%	+152	+368	+20.4%
June	15	5	10	33.3%	+148	-260	-17.3%
July	21	11	10	52.4%	+141	+551	+26.2%
August	19	10	9	52.6%	+155	+650	+34.2%
September	16	7	9	43.8%	+149	-155	-9.7%
Season Total	101	48	53	47.5%	+148	+1,424	+14.1%

Key Takeaways

• Positive ROI despite sub-50% win rate: The strategy won only 47.5% of bets but generated 14.1% ROI because the average odds (+148) provided sufficient value
• Variance is real: June showed a brutal 33.3% win rate, but the strategy recovered with strong July-August performance
• Sample size matters: 101 bets is still relatively small - true edge becomes clearer over 500+ bets
• Public fade worked: Betting against heavily-backed public favorites in specific situations created exploitable value
• Discipline required: Sticking with the strategy through the June losing streak was essential to capturing the full-season profit

Why This Strategy Had an Edge

The market inefficiency exploited here was public overvaluation of brand-name teams. Casual bettors disproportionately bet on recognizable teams like the Yankees and Dodgers, pushing lines beyond true probability. Quality home underdogs with solid pitching were systematically undervalued in these matchups.

Platform Integration: Where to Place Moneyline Bets

Different sportsbooks offer varying moneyline odds, features, and betting limits. Here's how moneyline betting works across major platforms:

DraftKings

• Strengths: Competitive odds on major sports, excellent mobile app, frequent odds boosts on moneylines
• Limits: Higher limits for recreational bettors ($1,000-$5,000 typical max on NFL/NBA moneylines)
• Best for: Mainstream sports (NFL, NBA, MLB) with good line shopping opportunities

FanDuel

• Strengths: Often has the best odds on underdogs, user-friendly interface, same-game parlays
• Limits: Similar to DraftKings for most markets
• Best for: Underdog moneyline bets where they frequently offer +5 to +10 better odds than competitors

BetMGM

• Strengths: Wide variety of sports and leagues, good international soccer coverage
• Limits: Moderate limits, may reduce limits for winning players
• Best for: Niche sports and international markets

Caesars

• Strengths: Generous promotions, competitive odds on major markets
• Limits: Standard recreational limits
• Best for: Taking advantage of promotional boosts and enhanced odds offers

Pinnacle (Where Legal)

• Strengths: Sharpest lines in the industry, highest limits, welcomes winning players
• Limits: Very high limits ($10,000+ on major markets)
• Best for: Using as a benchmark for true market odds, serious bettors
• Note: Not available in US regulated markets

Line Shopping Strategy

For a $100 bet on a -150 favorite:

• At -150: Risk $150 to win $100 (total return $250)
• At -145: Risk $145 to win $100 (total return $245)
• Savings: $5 per bet

Over 200 bets per year, this $5 difference equals $1,000 in additional profit simply from having multiple accounts and taking 30 seconds to compare odds.

Final Thoughts: Mastering Moneyline Betting

Moneyline betting is deceptively simple on the surface but offers deep strategic complexity. Success requires:

• Mathematical literacy: Understanding implied probability and expected value
• Disciplined bankroll management: Proper bet sizing prevents ruin during inevitable losing streaks
• Market awareness: Knowing when public bias creates value opportunities
• Emotional control: Accepting that short-term results don't validate or invalidate sound process
• Continuous learning: Adapting to market efficiency and changing league dynamics

The moneyline is the purest form of sports betting - simply picking winners. But consistent profitability comes not from picking more winners than losers, but from identifying situations where the odds offered exceed the true probability of the outcome. Master this fundamental concept, and you'll have the foundation for long-term success in sports betting.