Quick Definition
A point spread is a handicap that levels the playing field between two teams. The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can lose by less than the spread (or win outright) and still cover.
Both sides typically have -110 odds, making spreads the most popular bet type in football and basketball.
How Point Spreads Work
Reading the Spread
Chiefs -7 (-110) means:
- Chiefs are 7-point favorites
- They must win by 8+ points for you to win
- Risk $110 to win $100
Broncos +7 (-110) means:
- Broncos are 7-point underdogs
- They can lose by up to 6 points OR win outright
- Risk $110 to win $100
Example Outcomes
| Final Score | Chiefs -7 Bet | Broncos +7 Bet |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs 31 - Broncos 17 (14-pt win) | ✅ WIN | ❌ LOSE |
| Chiefs 24 - Broncos 17 (7-pt win) | 🔄 PUSH | 🔄 PUSH |
| Chiefs 24 - Broncos 20 (4-pt win) | ❌ LOSE | ✅ WIN |
| Broncos 21 - Chiefs 17 (Broncos win) | ❌ LOSE | ✅ WIN |
Detailed Examples Across Major Sports
NFL Example: Sunday Night Football
Buffalo Bills -3 (-110) vs Miami Dolphins +3 (-110)
You bet $220 on Bills -3. Here's how different scenarios play out:
- Bills win 27-17 (10-point margin): Bills cover easily. You win $200 profit. Total return: $420.
- Bills win 24-21 (3-point margin): Exactly the spread = PUSH. Your $220 is refunded. No profit, no loss.
- Bills win 23-21 (2-point margin): Bills win the game but don't cover. You lose $220.
- Dolphins win 20-17: Underdogs win outright. You lose $220.
Meanwhile, your friend bet $110 on Dolphins +3. In that same 24-21 Bills victory, they get a push and their money back. In the 23-21 game, they WIN $100 even though their team lost.
NBA Example: Lakers vs Nuggets
Denver Nuggets -6.5 (-110) vs Los Angeles Lakers +6.5 (-110)
You bet $550 on Nuggets -6.5. Basketball spreads work identically to football, but the half-point eliminates pushes:
- Nuggets 118 - Lakers 105 (13-point win): Nuggets cover by 6.5 points. You win $500 profit.
- Nuggets 112 - Lakers 106 (6-point win): Nuggets win but fall short by 0.5 points. You lose $550.
- Lakers 115 - Nuggets 110: Underdogs win outright. You lose $550.
The half-point matters enormously. In the 112-106 game, you're one possession away from winning. This is why line shopping and buying points strategically can be valuable.
MLB Example: Run Line Betting
New York Yankees -1.5 (+140) vs Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
Baseball uses a standard 1.5-run spread called the "run line." Unlike football/basketball, the odds aren't symmetrical at -110 because 1.5 runs is significant:
You bet $100 on Yankees -1.5 at +140:
- Yankees 6 - Red Sox 3 (3-run win): Yankees cover. You win $140 profit.
- Yankees 4 - Red Sox 3 (1-run win): Yankees win but don't cover. You lose $100.
- Red Sox 5 - Yankees 4: Red Sox win. You lose $100.
Your friend bets $160 on Red Sox +1.5 at -160:
- Yankees 6 - Red Sox 3: They lose by more than 1.5 runs. They lose $160.
- Yankees 4 - Red Sox 3: Red Sox lose but cover. They win $100 profit.
- Red Sox 5 - Yankees 4: Red Sox win outright. They win $100 profit.
Key difference: MLB run lines favor underdogs heavily because most games are decided by 1-2 runs. That's why you get plus-money on favorites and must lay juice on underdogs.
College Football Example: Blowout Potential
Alabama -24.5 (-110) vs Vanderbilt +24.5 (-110)
Large spreads create different dynamics. You bet $110 on Alabama -24.5:
- Alabama 45 - Vanderbilt 10 (35-point win): Easy cover. You win $100.
- Alabama 38 - Vanderbilt 14 (24-point win): Alabama wins big but doesn't cover by 0.5 points. You lose $110.
- Alabama 31 - Vanderbilt 17 (14-point win): Closer than expected. You lose $110.
Backdoor cover alert: Alabama leads 38-10 with 2 minutes left. Vanderbilt scores a garbage-time touchdown. Final: 38-17. You thought you had an easy win at -24.5, but that meaningless TD cost you the cover. This happens constantly with large spreads.
Point Spread Comparison Across Sports
| Sport | Spread Name | Typical Range | Standard Odds | Key Numbers | Push Frequency | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Point Spread | 1 to 14 | -110/-110 | 3, 7, 6, 10, 14 | ~9% (without hook) | Balanced matchups, primetime games |
| NBA | Point Spread | 1 to 12 | -110/-110 | 5, 7, 8 | ~3% (without hook) | Regular season, injury-adjusted lines |
| MLB | Run Line | Always 1.5 | +120 to -180 | N/A (fixed spread) | 0% (always .5) | Ace pitcher matchups, heavy favorites |
| NHL | Puck Line | Always 1.5 | +110 to -200 | N/A (fixed spread) | 0% (always .5) | Playoff games, goalie advantages |
| College Football | Point Spread | 3 to 45 | -110/-110 | 3, 7, 14, 21 | ~7% (without hook) | Conference games, avoiding blowouts |
| College Basketball | Point Spread | 1 to 20 | -110/-110 | 4, 5, 6 | ~4% (without hook) | March Madness, rivalry games |
| Soccer | Asian Handicap | 0.5 to 2.5 | Varies widely | 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 | 0-50% (depends on line) | International matches, EPL games |
The Hook: Why .5 Points Matter
Many spreads include a half-point (the "hook") to eliminate pushes:
- Chiefs -7: Exactly 7-point win = PUSH (bet refunded)
- Chiefs -7.5: No push possible - must win by 8+
Buying the Hook: You can often pay extra juice to move the spread by 0.5 points. This matters most at key numbers.
Key Numbers in NFL Spreads
Certain margins occur more frequently due to NFL scoring:
| Number | Why It Matters | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Field goal margin | ~15% of games |
| 7 | Touchdown margin | ~9% of games |
| 6 | Two field goals | ~5% of games |
| 10 | TD + FG | ~5% of games |
| 14 | Two touchdowns | ~4% of games |
Strategy: Buying from -7 to -6.5 or +2.5 to +3 is often worth the extra juice.
Why Spreads Exist
Without spreads, everyone would bet favorites:
- Chiefs vs Broncos moneyline: Chiefs -450, Broncos +350
- 90% of bets go to Chiefs
- Sportsbook has massive liability if Chiefs win
With spreads:
- Chiefs -7 (-110), Broncos +7 (-110)
- Roughly 50/50 betting action
- Sportsbook collects vig from losing side regardless of winner
When to Use Point Spreads vs Not Use
Best Situations for Spread Betting
Scenario 1: Heavy Favorite with Confidence
You believe the Bucks will dominate the Pistons. Bucks moneyline is -650 (risk $650 to win $100). Bucks -12.5 is -110 (risk $110 to win $100). If you're confident in a blowout, the spread offers much better value.
Scenario 2: Competitive Games with Edge
Two evenly-matched teams with a 3-point spread. You've identified that the underdog matches up well defensively and keeps games close. Taking +3 gives you three ways to win: outright victory, tie, or loss by 1-2 points.
Scenario 3: Divisional Rivalry Games
Division rivals know each other well and games tend to be closer than talent suggests. If the Patriots are -10 against the Jets but historically win by an average of 5 in this matchup, Jets +10 has value.
Scenario 4: Public Overreaction
A team just lost badly on national TV. The public hammers their opponent the next week, inflating the spread from -3 to -6. You're getting extra points due to recency bias.
Scenario 5: Key Number Opportunities
You find a line at exactly +3 in the NFL. You're getting the most important number in football, which lands exactly 15% of the time. This is statistically valuable.
Situations to Avoid Spread Betting
Avoid 1: Slight Favorite You Love
You're certain the Ravens will beat the Steelers, but the spread is Ravens -2.5. Why give up 2.5 points? The moneyline might be -140, which is reasonable juice for a team you're confident wins outright. Don't risk a 1-2 point loss when you expect a win.
Avoid 2: Unpredictable Blowout Potential
College football games with spreads over 30 points are volatile. The favorite might win 52-3 or 38-24. Backup quarterbacks, garbage time, and running up the score make these unreliable. Stick to smaller spreads or alternate markets.
Avoid 3: Injury Uncertainty
The line is Lakers -4, but LeBron is questionable. If you bet now and he sits, the line would have been +2. Wait for injury clarity or avoid the game entirely. Betting into uncertainty is gambling, not investing.
Avoid 4: Chasing Bad Numbers
You wanted Cowboys -3 on Monday, but you waited. It's now -6 on Sunday. Don't bet worse numbers just to have action. The line moved against you for a reason—either sharp money or new information.
Avoid 5: Parlaying Spreads Without Correlation
Adding random spreads to a parlay (Chiefs -7, Lakers -5, Yankees -1.5) reduces your win probability multiplicatively. A 52% edge on each becomes 14% to hit all three. Parlays work for correlated outcomes, not independent spreads.
ATS Records: What They Mean
ATS = Against The Spread
A team's ATS record tracks how often they cover the spread, not just win games:
| Team | Straight Up | ATS Record | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 12-5 | 8-9 | Win but often don't cover big spreads |
| Browns | 7-10 | 11-6 | Lose but keep games close |
Key Insight: Good teams with inflated spreads often fail to cover. Bad teams getting points can be profitable.
Line Movement: What It Tells You
Spreads move based on betting action and new information:
Example Line Movement
- Monday Open: Chiefs -6
- Wednesday: Chiefs -6.5 (public betting Chiefs)
- Friday: Chiefs -7 (continued action)
- Sunday: Chiefs -6.5 (sharp money on Broncos)
Reverse Line Movement
When the line moves opposite to public betting percentages, sharp money is likely involved:
- 75% of bets on Chiefs -7
- Line moves to Chiefs -6.5
- Sharps are betting Broncos +7, moving the line despite fewer bets
Common Point Spread Betting Mistakes
Mistake 1: Confusing Cover with Win
Wrong Approach: "The Chiefs won 24-20, so I won my Chiefs -7 bet! Time to celebrate!"
Right Approach: Chiefs won by 4 points. You needed them to win by 8+. You lost $110.
Why It Matters: New bettors confuse game outcomes with betting outcomes. A team can dominate and not cover (up 21-0, wins 21-17 with backups playing). Understanding margin of victory is fundamental. Over a season, this confusion leads to thinking you're winning when you're actually down money.
Mistake 2: Ignoring Key Numbers in NFL
Wrong Approach: "I'll take Patriots -6.5 instead of shopping for -6. What's half a point?"
Right Approach: That half-point crosses 6, which occurs in 5% of games (two field goals). Shopping for -6 or buying to -5.5 is worth the effort.
Why It Matters: Over 100 bets, ignoring key numbers costs you 5-6 extra losses. At $110 per bet, that's $550-660 in avoidable losses. A bettor who shops for -6 instead of accepting -6.5 gains 5-6 pushes that would have been losses—directly impacting profitability.
Mistake 3: Chasing Steam (Line Movement)
Wrong Approach: "The line opened at Cowboys -3 and moved to -5. Sharp money is on Dallas! I'll bet Cowboys -5 right now!"
Right Approach: If sharps bet Cowboys at -3, you want -3 or better, not -5. The move already happened. You're now getting the worst number.
Why It Matters: You're paying retail when sharps bought wholesale. If you bet 20 games this way at 2 points worse than sharp action, you lose an extra 10-15% of bets you should have won. On $100 bets, that's $1,000-1,500 in losses from chasing instead of anticipating or line shopping.
Mistake 4: Betting Large Spreads in College Football
Wrong Approach: Betting Alabama -35 against an FCS school for "easy money." You bet $550 to win $500.
Right Approach: Alabama leads 42-0 at halftime and plays third-stringers the entire second half. Final score: 49-7. Alabama wins by 42, but you needed 36. You lose $550 on a 42-point blowout.
Why It Matters: Large spreads are unpredictable due to sportsmanship, garbage time, and coaching decisions. Alabama doesn't care about your -35 bet. Over 10 such bets, you might win 6 and lose 4, going 6-4 but losing money due to juice. The perceived "lock" is actually a coin flip with worse odds.
Mistake 5: Not Tracking Your Spread Performance by Category
Wrong Approach: "I'm 45-40 on spreads this year, so I'm profitable!"
Right Approach: Breaking down your record: Favorites 20-25 (-$550), Underdogs 25-15 (+$850), Home teams 30-22 (+$580), Road teams 15-18 (-$330).
Why It Matters: You discover you're terrible at betting favorites but excellent with underdogs. Without tracking, you continue betting favorites and erode your profits. With data, you adjust strategy, bet more underdogs, and increase annual profit by $2,000+.
Mistake 6: Parlaying Uncorrelated Spreads
Wrong Approach: "I'll parlay Packers -6, Heat -4, and Red Sox -1.5 for a huge payout!" You bet $100 to win $600.
Right Approach: Each bet has roughly 52% win probability (if you have an edge). Combined: 0.52 × 0.52 × 0.52 = 14% chance. The payout should be 6-to-1, but you're getting 6-to-1 on a 7-to-1 shot.
Why It Matters: Over 20 parlays at $100 each ($2,000 risked), you hit 2-3 parlays (winning $1,200-1,800) but lose 17-18 ($1,700-1,800). You'd be better off betting $100 straight on each game individually, winning 52% and profiting over time. Parlays look exciting but destroy your edge.
Strategic Implementation Guide: 7-Step Process
Step 1: Establish Your Baseline Numbers
Before the lines are posted, create your own spread predictions. For NFL Week 8, predict each game's margin. When lines post, compare your numbers to the market. If you have Chiefs -9 and the market opens -6, that's a 3-point edge worth investigating.
Tools needed: Spreadsheet, power ratings system, historical data
Expected outcome: Identify 2-4 games per week with meaningful line discrepancies
Step 2: Line Shop Across Multiple Sportsbooks
Never bet the first line you see. Check 3-5 sportsbooks for the best number. Getting Packers -2.5 instead of -3 at different books is worth creating accounts at multiple platforms.
Tools needed: Accounts at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet minimum
Expected outcome: Gain 0.25-0.5 points per bet on average, worth 3-5% better win rate
Step 3: Identify Key Number Situations
When you find a line at or near 3 or 7 in NFL, calculate whether buying points is +EV. Use this formula: Does the push probability exceed the extra juice cost?
Example: Cowboys -3 (-110) or -2.5 (-130). Buying the half-point costs 20 cents. Since 15% of games land on 3, you're paying 20 cents to avoid a 15% push. Math says don't buy. But -7 to -6.5 at 9% frequency? Often worth it.
Tools needed: Key number frequency data, juice calculator
Expected outcome: Make mathematically sound point-buying decisions 2-3 times per week
Step 4: Monitor Line Movement and Betting Percentages
Track how lines move from open to close. Use Action Network, Sports Insights, or similar tools to see public betting percentages versus line movement.
What to look for: 70%+ public bets on one side but line moves the opposite direction = sharp money indicator
Tools needed: Action Network PRO, betting percentage tracker
Expected outcome: Identify 1-2 sharp plays per week where you're betting with professional action
Step 5: Apply Situational Handicapping
Layer your spread analysis with situational factors:
- Rest advantages (team off bye vs opponent on short week)
- Travel distance (West Coast team traveling East for 1pm game)
- Motivation (playoff implications, revenge game, rivalry)
- Weather (wind affects spreads in NFL, especially passing teams)
- Injuries (not just star players—offensive line injuries matter greatly)
Expected outcome: Refine your 2-4 weekly plays to 1-2 highest-conviction bets
Step 6: Implement Proper Bankroll Management
Bet 1-3% of your bankroll per spread bet. If you have $5,000 bankroll:
- Standard play: $50-100 (1-2%)
- High confidence: $150 (3%)
- Never exceed 5% on any single bet
Why this matters: Even 55% winners lose 45% of the time. Betting too much on single games causes bankroll volatility that forces you out during losing streaks.
Expected outcome: Survive 10-15 bet losing streaks without going broke
Step 7: Track and Analyze Your Results
Log every spread bet with:
- Date, teams, spread, odds
- Amount risked and won/lost
- Category tags (favorite/underdog, home/away, spread size, sport)
- Closing line value (did you beat the closing number?)
Monthly review: Calculate win rate, ROI, and closing line value by category
Tools needed: mybets.gg tracking platform, Excel backup
Expected outcome: Identify profitable patterns and eliminate losing bet types within 3 months
Real-World Historical Example: 2023 NFL Season Spread Strategy
Let's examine a documented approach to NFL spread betting over a 17-week season using home underdogs strategy:
The Strategy
Bet every NFL home underdog of +3 to +7 points, with the hypothesis that home field advantage is undervalued and these teams keep games close.
Season Results Breakdown
| Month | Games Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Amount Risked | Profit/Loss | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 58.3% | $1,320 | +$190 | +14.4% |
| October | 18 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 52.9% | $1,980 | +$10 | +0.5% |
| November | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 62.5% | $1,760 | +$340 | +19.3% |
| December | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 57.1% | $1,650 | +$140 | +8.5% |
| January | 6 | 7 | 1 | 53.8% | $660 | +$30 | +4.5% | |
| TOTAL | 67 | 37 | 27 | 3 | 57.8% | $7,370 | +$710 | +9.6% |
Key Takeaways from This Example
- Consistency matters: The strategy won in 4 of 5 months, showing edge over time
- Volume creates profit: 9.6% ROI on 67 bets = $710 profit with $110 unit size
- Win rate above breakeven: 57.8% wins vs 52.4% needed to profit at -110 odds
- Variance exists: October nearly broke even despite solid process
- Closing line value: This strategy beat closing lines 61% of the time, indicating sharp positioning
Important note: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. This example demonstrates proper tracking and realistic expectations, not a guaranteed winning system.
Platform Integration: Where to Bet Point Spreads
Different sportsbooks offer varying advantages for spread betting. Here's how to maximize value across platforms:
Best Platforms for Spread Betting
| Sportsbook | Best Feature | Typical Juice | Alternate Spreads | Live Betting | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | Lowest margins | -105/-105 | Yes | Excellent | Sharp bettors seeking best prices |
| DraftKings | Promos & parlays | -110/-110 | Extensive | Very good | Recreational bettors, same-game parlays |
| FanDuel | User interface | -110/-110 | Good | Very good | Beginners, mobile betting |
| BetMGM | Bonus offers | -110/-110 | Good | Good | New users with deposit bonuses |
| Caesars | Odds boosts | -110/-110 | Moderate | Good | Promotional hunters |
| Circa Sports | Sharp lines | -108/-108 | Limited | Moderate | Line shopping, Vegas bettors |
Multi-Book Strategy
Serious spread bettors maintain accounts at 3-5 sportsbooks to:
- Line shop: A half-point difference turns losses into wins 2-3% of the time
- Capture best juice: -105 vs -110 saves $45 per $1,000 wagered
- Exploit promos: Odds boosts on spreads can add 2-5% to your edge
- Avoid limits: Winning bettors get limited; spreading action preserves access
Platform-Specific Tips
DraftKings: Check "Featured" tab for boosted spreads before kickoff. Their same-game parlay builder allows creative spread combinations.
FanDuel: "Bet $5, Get $200" promos often apply to spreads. Use on heavy favorites where you'd bet anyway.
Pinnacle: Lines move fastest here. If Pinnacle moves and your book hasn't, you have 5-10 minutes to capitalize.
BetMGM: "One Game Parlay" insurance returns stake if one leg fails. Combine spread with low-correlation props.
Mobile App Considerations
For live spread betting, app speed matters:
- Fastest updates: DraftKings, FanDuel (1-2 second delay)
- Most stable: BetMGM, Caesars (fewer crashes during high traffic)
- Best live interface: FanDuel (clearest spread display during games)
Final Recommendations
Point spread betting rewards preparation, discipline, and mathematical thinking. To succeed:
- Start small: Bet 1% of bankroll while learning (3-6 months minimum)
- Specialize first: Master one sport before expanding to others
- Track everything: You can't improve what you don't measure
- Shop lines religiously: Half-points determine long-term profitability
- Accept variance: 10-game losing streaks happen to 55% winners
- Beat closing lines: If you consistently get worse numbers than close, you'll lose long-term
- Never chase losses: Stick to your unit sizing regardless of recent results
The spread is the most efficient betting market, meaning it's hardest to beat but offers the most action. Treat it as a marathon, not a sprint, and focus on process over results in the short term.