What is Expected Value in Betting?
Expected Value (EV) is a way to measure the probability of winning or losing a bet over time. A positive EV (+EV) means you have an edge over the sportsbook.
Practical Example:
If you have a 55% chance to win a bet at odds of 2.00 (+100), your EV is +10%.
The +EV Betting Strategy
Successful betting is about finding 'value'. If the true probability of an event is higher than the implied probability of the odds, you have found a +EV bet.
By consistently placing +EV bets, you are mathematically guaranteed to be profitable over a large enough sample size, regardless of short-term variance. This is akin to being the "House" in a casino game; you might lose a few hands, but the math ensures you win in the end.
Closing Line Value (CLV)
The best way to verify if your bets truly have Positive Expected Value is to track Closing Line Value.
If you bet on the Chiefs at -110, and by game time the line has moved to -130, you beat the closing line. This is a strong indicator that your +EV calculation was correct and you made a good bet, regardless of whether it actually won or lost.
Frequently Asked Questions
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