What is Push?

Quick Definition

A push is when a sports bet ends in a tie - neither you nor the sportsbook wins. When this happens, your original stake is refunded in full, and it's like the bet never occurred. No profit is made, but no loss is incurred either.

Pushes most commonly occur with whole number spreads (e.g., -7, +3) and totals (e.g., 48, 52) when the final result lands exactly on the betting number. Understanding pushes is essential for managing your bankroll and setting realistic expectations for your betting outcomes.

How Pushes Work Across Different Sports

NFL Point Spread Push Example

Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals

• Chiefs -3 (-110) - $110 to win $100
• Bengals +3 (-110) - $110 to win $100

Final Score: Chiefs 27, Bengals 24 (exactly 3-point margin)

Result Breakdown:

• Chiefs -3 bettors: PUSH - Full $110 stake refunded
• Bengals +3 bettors: PUSH - Full $110 stake refunded
• The sportsbook collects no juice on these wagers
• Bet is graded as "No Action" in your account

This scenario is particularly common in the NFL because 3-point margins (field goals) occur in approximately 9% of all games, making -3 and +3 among the most frequent push numbers in football betting.

NBA Totals Push Example

Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs Boston Celtics

Total: Over/Under 218 points

• Over 218 (-110) - $220 to win $200
• Under 218 (-110) - $220 to win $200

Final Score: Lakers 114, Celtics 104 (218 total points)

Result:

• Over 218 bettors: PUSH - $220 refunded
• Under 218 bettors: PUSH - $220 refunded
• Account balance returns to pre-bet status

In the NBA, totals pushes occur less frequently than in lower-scoring sports because the half-point (.5) is commonly used. However, when sportsbooks set whole number totals like 218, 220, or 225, pushes become possible.

MLB Run Total Push Example

Game: New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox

Total: Over/Under 9 runs

• Over 9 (-115) - $115 to win $100
• Under 9 (-105) - $105 to win $100

Final Score: Yankees 6, Red Sox 3 (9 total runs)

Calculation:

• Combined runs: 6 + 3 = 9
• Total set at exactly 9
• Over 9 bettors: PUSH - $115 returned
• Under 9 bettors: PUSH - $105 returned

MLB pushes on totals are relatively common with whole numbers like 7, 8, 9, and 10 runs. However, MLB run lines are typically set at 1.5, which eliminates the possibility of a push on spread bets.

NHL Puck Line Push Example

Game: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens

Alternate Puck Line: Maple Leafs -2 (+165)

• Bettor wagers $100 to win $165

Final Score: Maple Leafs 5, Canadiens 3 (exactly 2-goal margin)

Result:

• Maple Leafs win by exactly 2 goals
• Bet on Leafs -2: PUSH
• $100 stake refunded (no $165 profit)

While the standard NHL puck line is -1.5/+1.5 (which cannot push), alternate lines with whole numbers like -2 or -3 can result in pushes when the final margin matches exactly.

Push Scenarios Comparison Table

Sport	Bet Type	Push Number	Push Frequency	Typical Odds	Sportsbook Strategy
NFL	Point Spread	-3/+3	~9% of games	-110/-110	Often moves to -3.5 or -2.5
NFL	Point Spread	-7/+7	~6% of games	-110/-110	Key number, rarely moves
NBA	Totals	Whole numbers (220, 225)	~3% of games	-110/-110	Usually sets at .5 numbers
MLB	Totals	8, 9 runs	~5% of games	-110/-110	Frequently uses .5 totals
NHL	Puck Line	Standard -1.5	0% (impossible)	Variable	Half-point eliminates pushes
College Football	Point Spread	-14/+14	~4% of games	-110/-110	Common in blowout scenarios
Parlays	Any leg	Varies	Reduces parlay size	Adjusted payout	Leg removed, not voided

When Pushes Help vs Hurt Your Betting Strategy

When Pushes Work in Your Favor

Scenario 1: Protecting Bankroll During Uncertain Outcomes

When betting on a key number like -3 in the NFL, accepting the push possibility can be strategic. If you bet $110 on a team -3 and the game lands exactly on 3, you avoid a potential loss. While you don't profit, you preserve your bankroll for the next opportunity.

Example: You have $500 in your bankroll and bet $110 on Cowboys -3. The Cowboys win by exactly 3. Your $110 is returned, keeping your bankroll intact at $500 rather than dropping to $390 if you had taken -3.5 and lost.

Scenario 2: Parlay Protection

In multi-leg parlays, a push reduces your parlay but doesn't kill it entirely. A 5-leg parlay with one push becomes a 4-leg parlay, which still offers significant profit potential compared to a complete loss.

Example: Your 5-team parlay with $50 at +2500 odds (potential win: $1,250) has one leg push. It becomes a 4-team parlay at approximately +1200 odds (potential win: $600). You still have a live bet rather than a total loss.

When to Avoid Push Situations

Scenario 1: Opportunity Cost on Key Numbers

Betting -3 in the NFL means accepting a 9% chance of getting your money tied up with zero return. If you're an active bettor making multiple wagers per week, these pushes represent missed opportunities to deploy your capital elsewhere.

Example: Over a 17-week NFL season, if you make 34 bets on -3 spreads at $100 each, you'll statistically experience 3 pushes. That's $300 in capital that generated zero return when it could have been deployed on other opportunities.

Scenario 2: When You Have Strong Conviction

If your analysis strongly suggests a team will win by more than the key number, paying extra juice to move off the push number can be worthwhile.

Example: You're confident the Bills will beat the Jets by at least 7 points. Rather than taking Bills -7 (-110) with push risk, you take Bills -6.5 (-125). You risk $125 to win $100, but eliminate the push scenario. If they win by exactly 7, you win $100 instead of getting a refund.

Real Bettor Decision Matrix

Take the Push Risk When:

• You're betting recreationally with limited frequency
• The juice to move off the number is -130 or higher
• You're building parlays and want maximum odds
• Your bankroll is limited and protection matters
• Historical data doesn't support the margin you'd need

Avoid the Push Risk When:

• You're a high-volume bettor making daily wagers
• The juice cost is minimal (-115 to -120)
• You have strong analytical conviction on the margin
• It's a key number with high push frequency (3, 7 in NFL)
• You need decisive results for tracking performance

Common Mistakes Bettors Make With Pushes

❌ Mistake 1: Treating Pushes as Losses in Record Keeping

Wrong Approach: "I'm 15-12 this season, but I had 3 pushes, so I'm really 15-15."

Right Approach: Record as 15-12-3 (wins-losses-pushes). Pushes are neutral events.

Why It Matters: Miscounting your record distorts your win rate and ROI calculations. If you bet $110 per game at -110 odds, those 3 pushes represent $0 in profit/loss, not -$330 in losses. Your actual record shows a +$180 profit (15 wins × $100 - 12 losses × $110), which is a 6.7% ROI on $2,970 risked, not a break-even record.

❌ Mistake 2: Never Buying Off Key Push Numbers

Wrong Approach: "I never pay extra juice. I'll take -3 at -110 every time rather than -2.5 at -125."

Right Approach: Calculate expected value. On key numbers with high push frequency, buying the hook can be +EV.

Why It Matters: Let's say you bet $110 on -3 spreads 100 times over a season. With a 9% push rate, you'll push 9 times. If you're winning 53% of your non-push bets (a solid rate), you'd go approximately 48-43-9. That's +$290 profit. If you instead bet -2.5 at -125 ($125 to win $100), eliminating pushes, and maintain 53% wins across all 100 bets, you'd go 53-47, earning +$530 profit. The extra juice cost ($1,500 more risked) is offset by eliminating dead money in pushes.

❌ Mistake 3: Ignoring Push Impact on Parlay Strategy

Wrong Approach: "Pushes don't matter in parlays since the leg just gets removed."

Right Approach: A push dramatically reduces your potential payout and changes your risk-reward ratio.

Why It Matters: Consider a $100 four-team parlay at +1200 odds (potential win: $1,200). If one leg pushes, it becomes a three-team parlay at approximately +600 odds (potential win: $600). You've lost half your potential profit while still risking the same $100 and needing the same three teams to win. Over time, if 1 in every 4 of your parlays experiences a push, you're leaving significant money on the table. Using all half-point lines costs more juice but preserves your intended payout structure.

❌ Mistake 4: Not Tracking Push Frequency by Sport and Bet Type

Wrong Approach: Betting randomly without considering which sports and numbers push most frequently.

Right Approach: Maintain a database of your bets showing push rates by sport, bet type, and specific number.

Why It Matters: After 500 bets, you might discover you've pushed 25 times on NFL -3 spreads but only twice on NBA totals. That's $2,750 in capital (at $110 per bet) that was tied up and returned nothing on NFL key numbers. If you had consistently bought off -3 to -2.5 for an extra $15 per bet (moving from -110 to -125), you'd have spent $375 extra but potentially converted 13 of those pushes into wins (at 52% win rate), earning $1,300 in additional profit. Net gain: $925.

❌ Mistake 5: Misunderstanding Parlay Push Rules Across Sportsbooks

Wrong Approach: Assuming all sportsbooks handle parlay pushes identically.

Right Approach: Read the house rules for each sportsbook you use regarding parlay pushes.

Why It Matters: Most sportsbooks reduce a parlay when one leg pushes, but some have different rules. A few books may grade a 2-team parlay with one push as "no action" and refund everything, while others reduce it to a straight bet. If you're betting a $200 two-team parlay at +260 odds expecting a $520 potential win, and one leg pushes, you need to know if you'll get $200 back (no action) or if it becomes a straight bet where you'd win approximately $180 (if the other leg wins at -110). That's a $340 difference in outcome.

❌ Mistake 6: Overvaluing Push Protection in Low-Frequency Scenarios

Wrong Approach: Buying off every whole number regardless of push probability.

Right Approach: Focus push-avoidance spending on high-frequency numbers (3, 7, 10 in NFL; common totals in your sport).

Why It Matters: Moving from -4 to -3.5 in the NFL costs extra juice but protects against a margin that occurs in only ~1% of games. Over 100 bets at $110 each, you'd push once. If buying the hook costs you an extra $15 per bet (-110 to -125), you've spent $1,500 to avoid one $110 push. That's horrifically inefficient. Save your juice spending for protecting against -3 and -7, where push rates of 9% and 6% respectively make the insurance mathematically sound.

Strategic Implementation Guide for Managing Pushes

Step 1: Audit Your Historical Push Rate

Before implementing any push-management strategy, analyze your betting history. Export your last 200-500 bets and categorize them:

• Total number of pushes
• Push rate by sport (NFL vs NBA vs MLB)
• Push rate by bet type (spreads vs totals)
• Specific numbers that pushed (how many times did -3 push vs -7 vs -10?)
• Dollar amount tied up in pushes

Expected Outcome: You'll identify if pushes are a significant drag on your betting efficiency. If you're pushing more than 4-5% of bets, you're likely betting too many key numbers without protection.

Step 2: Calculate Your Push Cost

Determine the actual dollar impact of pushes on your betting performance:

• Multiply number of pushes × average bet size = capital that generated zero return
• Calculate opportunity cost: What could that money have earned at your typical ROI?
• Compare to the juice cost of avoiding those pushes

Example Calculation: 20 pushes × $110 average bet = $2,200 in dead capital. At a 5% ROI, that represents $110 in missed profit. If buying the hook on those 20 bets cost $300 total in extra juice, it wasn't worth it. But if it only cost $80, you should have done it.

Step 3: Establish Push-Avoidance Thresholds

Create clear rules for when you'll pay to avoid pushes:

• Always buy off: NFL -3 and -7 if juice is -120 or better
• Consider buying off: NFL -10, -14 if juice is -115 or better
• Never buy off: Random numbers with <2% push probability
• Totals strategy: Buy the hook on common totals (44, 47, 51 in NFL) if juice is reasonable

Tools Needed: Push frequency charts by sport, juice calculator, expected value calculator.

Step 4: Implement Line Shopping for Push Management

Different sportsbooks often have different lines. Use this to your advantage:

• If Book A has Patriots -3 (-110) and Book B has Patriots -2.5 (-110), take Book B
• You get push protection without paying extra juice
• Maintain accounts at 3-5 sportsbooks to maximize line shopping opportunities
• Use odds comparison tools to quickly identify the best available line

Expected Outcome: Line shopping can eliminate 30-50% of potential pushes without any additional juice cost, directly improving your bottom line.

Step 5: Adjust Parlay Construction to Minimize Push Impact

When building parlays, strategically select legs that minimize push probability:

• Prioritize half-point spreads (-3.5, -6.5, -7.5) over whole numbers
• Use half-point totals (48.5, 215.5) instead of whole numbers
• If you must include a key number, make it your highest-confidence leg
• Consider round-robin parlays where one push doesn't devastate your entire ticket

Expected Outcome: Reducing push probability in parlays from 15% to 5% can increase your long-term parlay profitability by 8-12%.

Step 6: Track Push Performance Monthly

Create a monthly push report including:

• Total bets placed
• Number of pushes
• Push rate percentage
• Dollar amount in pushed bets
• Estimated opportunity cost
• Juice spent on push avoidance
• Net impact on ROI

Tools Needed: Spreadsheet template, betting tracker app, or comprehensive platform like mybets.gg.

Step 7: Refine Strategy Based on Data

After 3-6 months of tracking, analyze patterns and adjust:

• If your push rate dropped but ROI didn't improve, you're overpaying for protection
• If your push rate is still high (>5%), you need more aggressive avoidance
• Identify which sports/bet types generate most pushes and focus efforts there
• Calculate your personal break-even point for juice spending on push protection

Expected Outcome: A data-driven push management strategy that adds 1-3% to your annual ROI by optimizing the balance between push avoidance costs and push frequency reduction.

Real-World Historical Example: NFL Season Push Analysis

Let's examine a realistic scenario tracking a bettor's NFL season with detailed push analysis.

Bettor Profile: Recreational bettor, $100 average bet, focuses on NFL spreads, 17-week regular season

Season Performance Breakdown

Month	Total Bets	Wins	Losses	Pushes	Push Rate	Profit/Loss	ROI
September	24	13	9	2	8.3%	+$310	12.9%
October	28	14	12	2	7.1%	+$80	2.9%
November	32	18	11	3	9.4%	+$610	19.1%
December	30	15	13	2	6.7%	+$70	2.3%
January	16	9	6	1	6.3%	+$240	15.0%
TOTAL	130	69	51	10	7.7%	+$1,310	10.1%

Detailed Push Analysis

Of the 10 pushes experienced during the season:

• 6 occurred on -3 spreads (60% of all pushes)
• 3 occurred on -7 spreads (30% of all pushes)
• 1 occurred on a -10 spread (10% of all pushes)

Financial Impact:

• Total capital tied up in pushes: 10 × $100 = $1,000
• At the bettor's 10.1% season ROI, that $1,000 could have generated $101 in profit if deployed elsewhere
• Opportunity cost of pushes: $101

Alternative Scenario: Buying the Hook on Key Numbers

What if this bettor had bought the hook on all -3 and -7 spreads?

Scenario	Bets on -3/-7	Avg Odds	Pushes	Extra Juice Cost	Pushes Converted	Additional Profit
Original (took pushes)	42	-110	9	$0	0	$0
Bought hook to -2.5/-6.5	42	-125	0	$630	5 wins, 4 losses	+$120

Calculation: Buying the hook cost an extra $15 per bet on 42 bets = $630. Of the 9 pushes eliminated, assuming a 55% win rate (slightly better than the bettor's 57% overall win rate on non-push bets), 5 would have been wins (+$500) and 4 would have been losses (-$500). Net: +$100 from converted pushes, minus $630 in extra juice = -$530.

Key Takeaways from This Analysis

• Push frequency matters: At 7.7%, this bettor experienced pushes at slightly below the expected 9% rate for key numbers, but it still tied up significant capital
• Buying the hook wasn't worth it: The extra juice cost exceeded the value gained from eliminating pushes
• Line shopping would have been better: If the bettor had shopped lines and found -2.5 or -6.5 at -110 odds even 50% of the time, they'd have saved $315 in juice while still eliminating 4-5 pushes
• Selective buying is optimal: Instead of buying all key numbers, buying only when odds were -115 or better would have reduced costs while still protecting against some pushes
• Strong win rate overcomes pushes: With a 57.5% win rate on decided bets, this bettor still achieved excellent ROI despite the push frequency

How mybets.gg Tracks and Manages Push Data

Understanding pushes is one thing; having the tools to track and analyze them is another. The mybets.gg platform provides comprehensive push tracking and analysis features designed to help you optimize your betting strategy.

Automated Push Detection and Categorization

When you log a bet in mybets.gg, the platform automatically:

• Identifies when a bet results in a push based on the final score and your bet parameters
• Categorizes the push by sport, bet type, and specific number
• Separates pushes from wins and losses in your record keeping
• Calculates your push rate across different sports and bet types
• Tracks the dollar amount tied up in pushes over time

Visual Dashboard: Your mybets.gg dashboard displays a dedicated "Push Analysis" section showing your push rate trend over the last 30, 90, and 365 days, with color-coded alerts if your push rate exceeds optimal thresholds.

Push Impact Calculator

The platform includes a sophisticated calculator that shows:

• Total capital deployed in pushes (your "dead money")
• Opportunity cost based on your historical ROI
• Recommended juice threshold for buying off specific numbers
• Projected ROI improvement if you reduce push rate by X%

Line Shopping Optimizer

One of mybets.gg's most powerful features for push management is the Line Shopping Optimizer, which:

• Compares lines across multiple sportsbooks in real-time
• Highlights opportunities to avoid key numbers at standard odds
• Alerts you when a half-point difference is available at -110 or better
• Tracks which sportsbooks most frequently offer favorable lines on key numbers
• Calculates the exact value of line shopping based on your betting volume

Example Alert: "You're about to bet Chiefs -3 (-110) at Sportsbook A. Sportsbook C has Chiefs -2.5 (-112). Based on your 8.2% push rate on -3, taking -2.5 at -112 has an expected value of +$4.20 on this $100 bet."

Historical Push Pattern Analysis

The platform's analytics engine examines your betting history to identify:

• Which specific numbers cause you the most pushes
• Time patterns (do you push more on primetime games, weekends, etc.?)
• Sport-specific push vulnerabilities
• Whether your push rate correlates with bet size
• Comparison of your push rate vs. platform averages

Smart Recommendations

Based on your data, mybets.gg provides personalized recommendations:

• "You've pushed on -3 six times this season. Consider buying to -2.5 when juice is -115 or better."
• "Your NBA push rate (3.1%) is well below average. Continue your current strategy."
• "You're paying -130 to buy hooks too frequently. Line shopping could save you $240/month."
• "Your push rate on totals (4.2%) suggests you're already avoiding key numbers effectively."

Advanced Push Strategy: The Selective Hook-Buying System

Rather than always or never buying the hook, advanced bettors use a selective system based on multiple factors:

The Decision Matrix

Factor	Buy the Hook	Take the Push Risk
Spread Number	-3, -7, -10 in NFL	-4, -5, -6, -8, -9
Juice Cost	-115 or better	-120 or worse
Line Shopping Result	Can't find better line	Better line available elsewhere
Bet Confidence	High confidence play	Marginal edge
Bet Size	Larger than unit size	Standard or smaller unit
Historical Push Rate	>10% on this number	<7% on this number

Implementation Example

Let's say you want to bet on the Cowboys -3 against the Giants:

1. Check the number: -3 is a key number (✓ for buying)
2. Shop lines: You find -2.5 at -115 at one book, -3 at -110 at another
3. Calculate value: Paying -115 for -2.5 costs you $5 extra on a $100 bet
4. Assess push probability: NFL games land on 3 about 9% of the time
5. Decision: Take -2.5 at -115 because the 9% push elimination is worth more than the $5 juice cost

Conversely, if the -2.5 was only available at -130:

1. Extra juice cost: $20 per $100 bet
2. Push probability: 9%
3. Expected value of push: $9 (9% × $100)
4. Decision: Take -3 at -110 because paying $20 to avoid a $9 expected push is -EV

Push Strategy by Sport: Tailored Approaches

NFL: The Push Minefield

Strategy: Aggressive push avoidance on key numbers

• Always line shop for -3, -7, -10, and +3, +7, +10
• Buy the hook at -115 or better on these numbers
• Consider alternate lines (many books offer -2.5/+3.5 at adjusted odds)
• Track your personal push rate—if it exceeds 8%, tighten your strategy

NBA: Moderate Push Management

Strategy: Selective avoidance

• Focus on avoiding pushes at 5, 6, 7 (most common margins)
• Less critical than NFL due to lower overall push rates
• Line shopping is more valuable than buying hooks
• Consider totals more carefully—half-point differences matter less

MLB: Minimal Push Concern

Strategy: Don't overthink it

• Run line pushes are rare (1.5 is the standard)
• Totals occasionally push, but frequency is low
• Focus on finding value rather than avoiding pushes
• If you're pushing >5% in MLB, you may be betting too many totals at whole numbers

NHL: Strategic Total Management

Strategy: Focus on totals

• Puck line is almost always 1.5 (no push possible)
• Totals of 5.5 and 6.5 are most common—avoid 6.0 when possible
• Push rate should be under 3% in hockey

The Psychology of Pushes: Mental Game Management

Beyond the mathematics, pushes affect bettors psychologically in ways that can impact decision-making:

The Relief Trap

Many bettors feel relieved when a losing bet pushes, treating it as a "win." This psychological quirk can lead to:

• Overvaluing push protection
• Paying too much juice to buy hooks
• Failing to recognize that a push is still a non-win

Solution: Track pushes separately and view them neutrally—neither wins nor losses, but opportunities for optimization.

The Frustration Factor

Conversely, when a winning bet pushes (you had -3, the team won by 3), frustration can lead to:

• Revenge betting
• Abandoning sound strategy
• Overcompensating by buying all hooks going forward

Solution: Remember that pushes are part of the game. A 7-8% push rate is normal and expected. Don't let individual pushes alter your systematic approach.

Final Recommendations: Your Push Management Checklist

To optimize your approach to pushes, follow this checklist:

1. Track your push rate: Use mybets.gg to monitor your push frequency across sports and bet types
2. Line shop first: Always check multiple sportsbooks before considering buying the hook
3. Know your key numbers: Memorize the critical numbers for each sport you bet
4. Set juice thresholds: Decide in advance the maximum juice you'll pay to buy a hook (recommended: -115 for NFL key numbers)
5. Calculate opportunity cost: Understand how much capital is tied up in pushes and whether that's acceptable
6. Stay disciplined: Don't let individual push results change your systematic approach
7. Review quarterly: Every 3 months, analyze your push data and adjust strategy if needed
8. Consider alternate lines: Many sportsbooks offer creative line options that can help you avoid key numbers
9. Don't overthink it: If your push rate is 5-8%, you're doing fine—focus on finding +EV bets instead

Pushes are an inevitable part of sports betting, but they don't have to be a mystery or a source of frustration. By understanding the mathematics, tracking your data, and implementing a strategic approach, you can minimize their impact on your bottom line while avoiding the trap of paying too much to eliminate them entirely. The key is balance: respect the push, but don't fear it.