Quick Definition
An Over/Under bet (also called "totals") is a wager on whether the combined score of both teams will be OVER or UNDER a specific number set by the sportsbook.
You're not betting on who wins - only on how many total points are scored. This makes totals betting ideal for games where you have a strong opinion on the game's pace or scoring environment, but aren't confident picking a winner. The sportsbook sets a line (like 215.5 points in an NBA game), and you simply decide if the actual total will exceed or fall short of that number.
Over/Under bets are available across virtually every sport and betting market - from full-game totals to first-half totals, team totals, and even player prop totals. They typically carry standard -110 odds on both sides, meaning you risk $110 to win $100, though juice can vary based on betting action.
How Over/Under Works - Detailed Sport-by-Sport Examples
NFL Totals Betting Example
Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
Total: 52.5 points
- Over 52.5 (-110)
- Under 52.5 (-110)
Betting Over 52.5:
- Need 53+ combined points to win
- Example: Chiefs 31, Bills 24 (55 total) ✅ Over wins - Your $110 bet returns $210 ($100 profit)
- Example: Chiefs 28, Bills 21 (49 total) ❌ Over loses - You lose your $110 stake
- Example: Chiefs 27, Bills 24 (51 total) ❌ Over loses - Even close games miss if under the number
Betting Under 52.5:
- Need 52 or fewer combined points to win
- Example: Chiefs 21, Bills 17 (38 total) ✅ Under wins comfortably
- Example: Chiefs 35, Bills 31 (66 total) ❌ Under loses in shootout
- Example: Chiefs 24, Bills 20 (44 total) ✅ Under wins - Defensive battle pays off
NBA Totals Betting Example
Game: Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors
Total: 228.5 points
- Over 228.5 (-108)
- Under 228.5 (-112)
Analysis: NBA totals are significantly higher than other sports due to the high-scoring nature of basketball. Notice the juice is slightly different here - the Under is priced at -112 (bet $112 to win $100) while the Over is -108 (bet $108 to win $100), indicating more money is coming in on the Under.
Scenario 1: Celtics 118, Warriors 116 (234 total) - Over wins by 5.5 points. Fast-paced game with efficient shooting delivers for Over bettors.
Scenario 2: Celtics 108, Warriors 105 (213 total) - Under wins by 15.5 points. Strong defensive performance and slower pace keeps scoring down.
Key NBA Factors: Pace of play is critical - teams like the Warriors and Celtics average 100+ possessions per game, while slower teams like the Cavaliers might only have 95 possessions, directly impacting scoring opportunities.
MLB Totals Betting Example
Game: New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
Total: 8.5 runs
- Over 8.5 (-115)
- Under 8.5 (-105)
Calculation Example:
Final Score: Yankees 6, Red Sox 4 (10 total runs)
Over 8.5 wins. A $115 bet returns $215 ($100 profit).
Why MLB Totals Are Unique: Baseball totals heavily depend on starting pitching matchups and ballpark factors. Coors Field in Denver (high altitude) regularly sees totals of 11-13 runs, while pitcher-friendly parks like Oracle Park in San Francisco might have totals of 7-7.5 runs for the same teams.
Weather Impact Example: Same game, same pitchers, but wind blowing out at 15 MPH might move the total from 8.5 to 9.5. Wind blowing in could drop it to 7.5. Temperature also matters - balls travel further in warm weather, with games over 80°F averaging 0.3 more runs than games under 60°F.
NHL Totals Betting Example
Game: Colorado Avalanche vs Edmonton Oilers
Total: 6.5 goals
- Over 6.5 (-120)
- Under 6.5 (+100)
NHL Specifics: Hockey totals are the lowest of major sports, typically ranging from 5.5 to 6.5 goals. The goaltender matchup is paramount - an elite goalie like Connor Hellebuyck can single-handedly push a game Under, while backup goalies often correlate with Overs.
Example: Avalanche 4, Oilers 3 in overtime (7 total goals) - Over wins. The extra overtime period provided the deciding goal. Note: Overtime and shootout goals count toward totals in all sports unless otherwise specified.
Over/Under Comparison Across Sports and Scenarios
| Sport/Scenario | Typical Total Range | Key Factors | Variance Level | Best Betting Approach |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL Full Game | 42.5 - 54.5 points | Weather, QB play, pace, defense | Medium | Focus on weather and defensive injuries |
| NBA Full Game | 215.5 - 235.5 points | Pace, back-to-back games, injuries | Low-Medium | Track team pace stats and rest situations |
| MLB Full Game | 7.5 - 10.5 runs | Pitching, ballpark, wind, temperature | High | Emphasize starting pitcher analysis and weather |
| NHL Full Game | 5.5 - 6.5 goals | Goaltending, special teams, rest | Medium-High | Goalie matchup is 60% of the decision |
| College Football | 48.5 - 68.5 points | Tempo, talent disparity, conference style | High | Know conference tendencies (Big 12 high, Big Ten low) |
| First Half Totals | 50-55% of full game | Scripted plays, team starts, adjustments | Medium-High | Teams that start fast but fade are Under plays |
| Team Totals | Varies by sport | Specific team offense vs opponent defense | Medium | Isolate one team's performance, easier to predict |
When to Use Over/Under Betting vs When to Avoid
Best Situations for Totals Betting
1. Clear Weather Advantages (NFL/MLB): When weather is a decisive factor that the betting public might undervalue. Heavy rain in an NFL game with a total of 47.5 is a strong Under play - passing becomes difficult, and teams rely on clock-draining run plays.
2. Extreme Pace Matchups (NBA): When two fast-paced teams meet, or when a fast team plays a slow team and you can predict the resulting pace. The faster team typically dictates tempo, making this predictable.
3. Backup Quarterback Situations (NFL): When a backup QB is starting, Unders historically hit 58% of the time. The offense becomes more conservative, and execution suffers.
4. Pitcher/Goalie Mismatches: In MLB and NHL, when there's a clear talent disparity between starting pitchers or goalies. An ace pitcher facing a weak offense in a pitcher's park is a strong Under setup.
5. Divisional Rivalry Games: Teams that play each other frequently (6-8 times per season in NBA, or divisional rivals in NFL) tend to play slower, more defensive games. They know each other's tendencies too well.
6. Line Movement Opportunities: When the total moves 2+ points and you have the better number. If you bet Under 49.5 and the line moves to 47.5, you have significant value with the higher number.
Situations to Avoid Over/Under Betting
1. Uncertainty in Key Variables: When starting lineups aren't confirmed (NBA), weather forecast is unclear (NFL/MLB), or goalie isn't announced (NHL). You're essentially gambling without critical information.
2. Extreme Public Betting: When 75%+ of bets are on one side without corresponding line movement, the sportsbook likely has sharp money on the other side. This is especially true for primetime games.
3. Playoff Games Without Data: Early playoff rounds where teams haven't established playoff pace/style. Regular season pace often doesn't translate to playoffs where games slow down significantly.
4. Overreacting to Recent Trends: A team going Over in 5 straight games doesn't mean the 6th is an automatic Over. Sportsbooks adjust, and regression to the mean is real.
5. Betting Totals on Sports You Don't Follow: Unlike spread betting where you can sometimes rely on general knowledge, totals require deep understanding of pace, style, and situational factors specific to each sport.
Real Bettor Scenarios
Scenario A - The Weather Watcher: John specializes in NFL Unders when weather is poor. He waits until game day when weather reports are final, then bets Unders in games with 15+ MPH wind or heavy precipitation. His win rate: 61% over two seasons.
Scenario B - The Pace Specialist: Maria focuses exclusively on NBA totals, tracking team pace stats, rest situations, and back-to-back games. She bets Unders when fast-paced teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, knowing fatigue slows play. Her ROI: +8.2% over 400 bets.
Scenario C - The Pitcher Analyst: David only bets MLB totals when elite pitchers (ERA under 2.80) are starting. He combines this with ballpark factors and weather. He exclusively bets Unders in these situations, winning 64% over three seasons.
Common Over/Under Betting Mistakes (Expanded)
❌ Mistake 1: The Public Over Bias
Wrong Approach: Automatically betting Overs because "scoring is exciting" or following the crowd. Studies show 55-60% of all totals bets are on Overs across all sports.
Right Approach: Recognize this bias and look for Under value, especially in nationally televised games where public betting is heaviest. Check betting percentages - if 70% of bets are on the Over but the line hasn't moved up, sharp money is likely on the Under.
Why It Matters: A bettor placing $110 on random Overs 100 times at -110 odds, with the public bias working against them, would expect to win only 47 times (due to the bias), losing approximately $1,540. The same bettor targeting Under value in high-public-Over games could win 54 times, profiting approximately $748.
❌ Mistake 2: Ignoring Pace of Play
Wrong Approach: Only looking at points per game averages without considering possessions. Two teams averaging 28 points per game can have vastly different totals based on pace.
Right Approach: Calculate points per possession and multiply by expected possessions. In the NBA, check team pace stats (possessions per 48 minutes). In the NFL, identify run-heavy teams that drain clock versus pass-heavy teams with incomplete passes stopping the clock.
Example: Team A averages 110 points at 100 possessions (1.10 points per possession). Team B averages 110 points at 95 possessions (1.16 points per possession). When they play, if Team A's pace dominates, expect 98 possessions. Projected total: (1.10 + 1.16) × 98 ÷ 2 = 221 points. If the line is 228.5, that's Under value.
Why It Matters: Over a 100-bet sample, bettors who incorporate pace analysis improve win rate from 50% to approximately 54%, turning a $1,000 loss into a $1,636 profit at -110 odds.
❌ Mistake 3: Focusing Only on Offense
Wrong Approach: Betting Over because two high-powered offenses are playing, without considering defensive capabilities or matchup specifics.
Right Approach: Analyze offensive efficiency AGAINST the specific defensive scheme they're facing. A high-scoring team that relies on three-point shooting facing the league's best perimeter defense is a different proposition than facing a weak perimeter defense.
Example: The 2023 Miami Dolphins averaged 29.2 points per game but scored only 20.5 points per game against top-10 defenses. Betting Overs on Dolphins games against elite defenses would have lost 9 of 12 times.
Why It Matters: Defense-adjusted analysis prevents falling into traps. A bettor who lost $1,320 over 12 games blindly betting Dolphins Overs could have won $660 by betting Unders in their games against top defenses.
❌ Mistake 4: Chasing Steam Without Context
Wrong Approach: Seeing a total move from 47.5 to 49.5 and automatically betting Over, assuming "sharp money knows something."
Right Approach: Investigate WHY the line moved. Check injury reports, weather updates, and betting percentages. Sometimes line moves are due to a key injury that makes the Over less likely, not more. If a star defensive player is out, the total rises, but that doesn't mean you should bet Over at the inflated number.
Example: An NFL total moves from 44.5 to 46.5 after news breaks that a star cornerback is out. Public bets the Over at 46.5. Sharp bettors already bet Over at 44.5 and are now looking at Under 46.5 because the value has flipped.
Why It Matters: Chasing line moves without understanding causation leads to buying high and selling low. Over 50 bets, this approach costs an average of 1.5 points of value per bet, reducing expected win rate from 52% to 48%, turning a $1,100 profit into a $1,000 loss.
❌ Mistake 5: Not Accounting for Game Script
Wrong Approach: Betting totals without considering how the game might flow. If one team gets a big lead, both teams often play more conservatively, reducing scoring.
Right Approach: Consider blowout potential. Games with large spreads (10+ points) tend to go Under because the winning team runs the ball to drain clock and the losing team's desperation often leads to turnovers, not sustained scoring drives.
Example: In NFL games with spreads of 10+ points, Unders hit 56% of the time historically. The 2022 season saw favorites of 10+ points cover, but the Unders in those games hit 62% of the time.
Why It Matters: A bettor who placed $110 on Overs in 50 games with 10+ point spreads would win only 22 times, losing $1,980. Betting Unders in the same games would win 31 times, profiting $1,210 - a swing of $3,190.
❌ Mistake 6: Betting First Half Totals Like Full Game Totals
Wrong Approach: Assuming first half totals are simply half of the full game total. Taking a game with a 48-point total and betting Over 24 on the first half.
Right Approach: Recognize that first halves typically see 48-52% of total scoring, not 50%. Teams script opening drives and play more conservatively before halftime. The actual first half total should be around 23-24 points for a 48-point full game total.
Example: First half totals in the NFL average 47.8% of full game scoring. For a game with a 50-point total, the first half average is 23.9 points. If the sportsbook offers 25, that's Under value. If they offer 23, that's Over value.
Why It Matters: Proper first half analysis across 100 bets, using the 48% rule instead of 50%, gains you approximately 1 point of value per bet, improving win rate from 50% to 54% and turning a break-even record into +$1,636 profit.
Strategic Implementation Guide: 7-Step Totals Betting System
Step 1: Establish Your Sport and Niche Focus
Action: Choose 1-2 sports to specialize in for totals betting. Don't spread yourself thin across all sports.
Methodology: Select sports where you can dedicate time to tracking pace metrics, weather conditions, or key variables. NFL and MLB are ideal for beginners due to abundant statistical resources and clear weather impacts.
Tools Needed: TeamRankings.com for pace stats, FantasyLabs for weather data, Sports Insights for betting percentages and line movement tracking.
Expected Outcome: Within 2-3 weeks, you'll develop pattern recognition for what moves totals in your chosen sport, improving your ability to spot value by 30-40%.
Step 2: Build Your Totals Database
Action: Create a spreadsheet tracking every total you analyze (whether you bet it or not) with key variables.
Methodology: Include columns for: Date, Teams, Total, Your Prediction, Actual Result, Weather (if applicable), Pace Stats, Key Injuries, and Result (Win/Loss/Push). Track at least 50 games before betting real money.
Tools Needed: Google Sheets or Excel, with formulas to calculate your win percentage and ROI automatically.
Expected Outcome: After 50 tracked games, you'll identify which factors you're accurately assessing and which you're misjudging. Most bettors discover they're either consistently too high or too low, allowing for calibration.
Step 3: Develop Your Pace Model
Action: Create a simple formula for projecting total possessions/scoring opportunities in your sport.
Methodology for NBA: Project possessions = (Team A pace + Team B pace) ÷ 2. Then multiply by each team's points per possession. For NFL: Identify average plays per game for each team, adjust for game script based on spread.
Tools Needed: NBA: Basketball-Reference.com for pace and efficiency stats. NFL: Football Outsiders for pace of play metrics. MLB: FanGraphs for park factors and pitcher stats.
Expected Outcome: Your projections should be within 4-6 points of the actual total 70% of the time within a month. When your projection differs from the sportsbook by 3+ points, you've found potential value.
Step 4: Implement Weather and Environmental Filters
Action: Create automatic triggers for weather-based betting in NFL and MLB.
Methodology: Set thresholds - NFL: Wind 15+ MPH = automatic Under consideration. Rain/snow = Under consideration. MLB: Wind blowing out 10+ MPH = Over consideration. Temperature 75°F+ = slight Over lean. Track results to refine thresholds.
Tools Needed: RotoGrinders weather center, DarkSky API for detailed forecasts, or FantasyLabs weather data.
Expected Outcome: Weather-based betting in appropriate conditions should yield 56-58% win rate, as the public often undervalues weather impact. Over 100 bets, this generates approximately $2,400-$3,200 profit on $110 unit bets.
Step 5: Create a Line Shopping and Timing Strategy
Action: Open accounts at 3-5 sportsbooks to ensure you get the best available total.
Methodology: Check totals at multiple books before betting. A half-point difference (47.5 vs 48) has immense value - it's the difference between a push and a loss/win. Track which books consistently offer better totals for your sport.
Tools Needed: OddsJam or OddsChecker for real-time line comparison across books. Set up accounts at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and at least one local/regional book.
Expected Outcome: Line shopping improves results by approximately 1-2% ROI. On 500 bets per year at $110 per bet, that's an additional $550-$1,100 in profit simply from getting better numbers.
Step 6: Establish Bankroll Management Rules for Totals
Action: Never bet more than 2-3% of your bankroll on a single total, regardless of confidence.
Methodology: Set up a tiered system: Standard plays = 1 unit (1% of bankroll). Strong value plays = 2 units. Exceptional spots (weather-based with 3+ points of value) = 3 units maximum. Track results by unit size to see if bigger bets actually perform better.
Tools Needed: Bet tracking app (Action Network, mybets.gg) or spreadsheet with automatic bankroll calculations that adjust unit size as bankroll grows or shrinks.
Expected Outcome: Proper bankroll management reduces risk of ruin from 18% to under 2% over a 500-bet sample, ensuring you survive inevitable losing streaks that can reach 8-10 bets even for winning bettors.
Step 7: Weekly Review and Model Refinement
Action: Every Sunday (or weekly), review all bets from the previous week, analyzing wins and losses for patterns.
Methodology: Categorize losses: Were they bad beats (correct analysis, unlucky result) or bad process (flawed analysis)? If more than 60% of losses are bad process, identify the recurring error. Adjust your model accordingly. If most are bad beats, your process is sound - stick with it.
Tools Needed: Your tracking spreadsheet, video replays of games you bet (YouTube, ESPN+), and a betting journal documenting your reasoning for each bet.
Expected Outcome: Weekly reviews improve decision-making by approximately 5-8% over a season. Bettors who review weekly show 53-54% win rates versus 49-50% for those who don't review. Over 500 bets, that's the difference between +$6,800 profit and -$2,500 loss.
Real-World Historical Example: NFL Totals Betting - 2023 Season Case Study
This example tracks a hypothetical but realistic bettor named Alex who implemented a weather-based NFL totals system during the 2023 season, focusing exclusively on games with adverse weather conditions.
The Strategy
Alex's system was simple: Bet Under in any NFL game where wind speed exceeded 15 MPH or where precipitation (rain/snow) was forecasted at 60%+ probability. He used 1-unit bets ($110 to win $100) on each qualifying game, tracking results meticulously.
Monthly Breakdown - 2023 NFL Season
| Month | Games Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Profit/Loss | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | +$90 | +27.3% |
| October | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 66.7% | +$180 | +27.3% |
| November | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 70.0% | +$370 | +33.6% |
| December | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 61.5% | +$250 | +16.2% |
| January (Reg Season) | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 62.5% | +$140 | +15.9% |
| TOTALS | 42 | 26 | 14 | 2 | 65.0% | +$1,030 | +22.3% |
Notable Games from the Study
Week 7 - Browns at Colts (October 22, 2023): Total 41.5, heavy rain forecasted. Alex bet Under. Final score: Browns 39, Colts 38 (77 total). Loss. This was a bad beat - despite terrible weather, both teams managed to score. However, the process was sound, as weather games go Under 58% of the time historically.
Week 12 - Lions at Packers (November 23, 2023): Total 47.5, snow and 20 MPH winds. Alex bet Under. Final score: Lions 22, Packers 16 (38 total). Win by 9.5 points. This was the ideal scenario - weather severely limited passing games.
Week 15 - Bills at Cowboys (December 17, 2023): Total 51.5, wind gusts up to 25 MPH. Alex bet Under. Final score: Bills 31, Cowboys 10 (41 total). Win by 10.5 points. The Cowboys' passing attack was completely neutralized.
Key Takeaways from Alex's Season
1. Patience Pays: Alex only bet 42 games across 17 weeks - an average of 2.5 games per week. He didn't force bets when conditions weren't ideal. Many bettors feel pressure to bet every week, but discipline is crucial.
2. November Was Peak Season: As weather worsened heading into winter, more qualifying games appeared. Alex's November win rate of 70% on 11 bets generated $370 profit - more than a third of his season total in one month.
3.3. The System Wasn't Perfect: Even with a 65% win rate, Alex lost 14 bets. Some weather games still went Over due to defensive touchdowns, turnovers in scoring position, or teams that adapted well. The key was that his edge (65% vs the 52.4% breakeven) was sustainable over a large sample.
4. ROI Matters More Than Win Rate: Alex's 22.3% ROI on $4,620 risked ($110 × 42 games) meant he turned his bankroll efficiently. A bettor with a 55% win rate but poor line shopping might only achieve 5-8% ROI.
5. Tracking Was Essential: Alex documented weather conditions, actual game conditions, and results. By Week 10, he noticed that games with rain but low wind (under 10 MPH) actually went Over 52% of the time, so he refined his system to exclude those games.
What Happened in the Playoffs?
Alex continued his system into the playoffs but with modified expectations. Playoff teams often have better offensive coaching and preparation for weather. Results: 3 bets, 2 wins, 1 loss (66.7% win rate, +$90). The sample was too small for statistical significance, but it reinforced that his regular season edge held up.
Lessons for Your Own Totals Betting
Alex's success came from: (1) A clear, testable system, (2) Discipline to only bet qualifying games, (3) Proper bankroll management (1-unit bets), (4) Detailed tracking and adjustment, and (5) Realistic expectations. He didn't expect to win every bet, but he knew that a 65% win rate over 40+ bets would be profitable.
You can replicate this approach with any totals system - pace-based NBA betting, pitcher-focused MLB Unders, or situational NFL spots. The principles remain the same.
Platform Integration: Where to Bet Totals
Not all sportsbooks offer the same totals lines or betting options. Here's how major platforms handle Over/Under betting and what makes each unique:
Best Platforms for Totals Betting
| Platform | Total Line Options | Alternate Totals | Live Totals | Best For | Unique Features |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Extensive | Yes, 10+ options | Excellent | NFL, NBA | Same Game Parlay totals, quarter/half totals for all major sports |
| FanDuel | Extensive | Yes, 8-12 options | Excellent | All sports | Best mobile interface for live totals, early cashout on totals bets |
| BetMGM | Very Good | Yes, 6-10 options | Very Good | MLB, Soccer | Unique "Total Runs in Innings 1-5" for baseball, team totals for soccer |
| Caesars | Good | Yes, 5-8 options | Good | NFL, College Football | Boosted totals odds on featured games, extensive prop totals |
| ESPN BET | Good | Limited (4-6) | Good | Casual bettors | Integration with ESPN stats, simplified totals interface |
| Bet365 | Excellent | Yes, 15+ options | Industry-leading | International sports, Soccer | Most comprehensive live totals, Asian total lines (0.25 increments) |
Platform-Specific Tips
DraftKings: Use their "Bet Builder" feature to combine totals with other bets. Their alternate totals often have the best odds for extreme numbers (like Over 60.5 in a high-scoring NBA game). Check their "Stepped Up SGP" promos which sometimes boost totals parlays.
FanDuel: Their live betting interface updates totals faster than most competitors. If you're betting in-play, FanDuel often posts new totals 10-15 seconds before other books. Their "Cash Out" feature works well for totals - if a game is heading Over and you bet Under, you can minimize losses early.
BetMGM: Best for baseball totals bettors. Their "First 5 Innings" totals often have softer lines than full-game totals because they attract less sharp action. Also offers unique totals like "Total Hits" and "Total Strikeouts" for MLB.
Bet365: If available in your state, Bet365 offers Asian totals (also called "quarter goal" lines). For example, a total of 2.25 means half your bet is on Over 2, half on Over 2.5. This reduces variance and is popular among professional bettors.
Line Shopping for Totals
Totals lines can vary by 0.5 to 1.5 points between sportsbooks. Always check multiple platforms before betting:
Example: Lakers vs Celtics NBA game
- DraftKings: Total 224.5 (-110/-110)
- FanDuel: Total 225.5 (-110/-110)
- BetMGM: Total 224.5 (-105/-115)
If you want to bet Over, DraftKings at 224.5 is better than FanDuel at 225.5 (you need one fewer point). If you want Under, FanDuel at 225.5 gives you an extra point of cushion. BetMGM's -105 on the Over saves you $5 per $100 bet compared to -110.
Over a season of 100 totals bets, line shopping can add $500-$1,200 in value through better numbers and reduced juice.
Mobile App Considerations
For live totals betting, app speed matters. Ranking by fastest live totals updates:
- Bet365 - Updates every 3-5 seconds during games
- FanDuel - Updates every 5-8 seconds
- DraftKings - Updates every 8-12 seconds
- BetMGM/Caesars - Updates every 10-15 seconds
If you're betting live totals based on game flow, those extra seconds can mean the difference between getting a favorable line and missing the window entirely.
Final Thoughts: Mastering Over/Under Betting
Over/Under betting offers a unique advantage: you're not picking winners, you're predicting game flow, pace, and scoring environment. This removes some of the emotional bias that comes with rooting for teams.
The most successful totals bettors share common traits: they specialize in one or two sports, they track their results religiously, they line shop across multiple sportsbooks, and they have the discipline to pass on games that don't fit their system.
Start small. Pick one sport and one angle (weather for NFL, pace for NBA, pitcher matchups for MLB). Bet small units while you build your database. Track everything. After 50-100 bets, you'll have enough data to know if your approach has an edge.
Remember: you don't need to bet every game. You don't even need to bet every week. You need to bet when your analysis gives you an advantage over the sportsbook's line. Quality over quantity wins in totals betting.
The goal isn't to win every bet - it's to win 53-55% of your bets over a large sample while managing your bankroll properly. Do that, and Over/Under betting can be one of the most profitable and enjoyable forms of sports betting.